Let's talk about the popular iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ:IQ). The company's shares received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on iQIYI’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What's the opportunity in iQIYI?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 3.41% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy iQIYI today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $25.41, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because iQIYI’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will iQIYI generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 75% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for iQIYI. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? IQ’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on IQ, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example - iQIYI has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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