Can Bilibili’s Growth Momentum Continue After 59% Rally Into 2025?

If you’ve been pondering what to do with Bilibili stock lately, you’re definitely not alone. Plenty of investors are asking themselves whether now is the moment to jump in, hold tight, or even pivot entirely. After all, Bilibili's story has been far from boring, with a year-to-date return of 59.3% and a one-year gain of 40.2%. There are definite signs of breakout potential. On the flip side, recent weeks have brought turbulence, with the last seven days showing a -7.0% change, which might have some wondering about shifting risk perceptions in the market.

Looking further back, the narrative becomes even more intriguing. Over three years, Bilibili has soared an impressive 146.5%. If you rewind five years, the picture flips, with the stock down -39.8%. This pattern hints at shifting investor confidence, sometimes lifted by expansion opportunities and other times dampened by industry headwinds.

That brings us straight to the big question: is Bilibili undervalued at its current price of $27.29? According to our valuation checklist, Bilibili scores a 3 out of 6 for undervaluation, marking strengths in some but not all major criteria.

So, how did we land on that score, and do traditional valuation methods really tell the whole story? Let’s break down the numbers and later, I’ll share an even smarter perspective on what this all means for your investment strategy.

Bilibili delivered 40.2% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Interactive Media and Services industry.

Approach 1: Bilibili Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. This approach allows investors to account for expected growth and changes in company performance over time.

Bilibili's latest reported Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at approximately CN¥4.66 billion. Analyst projections extend up to 2028, with FCF estimated at around CN¥5.71 billion. Beyond that, further extrapolations suggest a steady rise, with cash flow expected to reach about CN¥8.12 billion in 2035, according to Simply Wall St’s forecasts. These figures reflect both consensus estimates and trend-based calculations, taking into account anticipated business expansion and industry dynamics.

Based on these projections, the DCF model estimates Bilibili's intrinsic value at $34.93 per share. Compared to the current share price of $27.29, the stock appears to be undervalued by 21.9 percent according to this analysis.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Bilibili.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Bilibili is undervalued by 21.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Bilibili Price vs Sales

The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is a commonly used metric for valuing companies, especially those not yet consistently profitable but with strong revenue growth. For businesses like Bilibili in high-growth sectors where profits may still be developing, the P/S ratio helps investors compare how much they’re paying for every dollar of sales. This makes it particularly relevant for fast-expanding internet and media companies.

Of course, what counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/S ratio will depend not just on the company’s growth prospects but also on the risks facing the business. Higher growth expectations or lower risks tend to justify a higher multiple. In contrast, greater uncertainty or slowing momentum typically mean a lower one is warranted.

Bilibili’s current P/S ratio sits at 2.71x. That is above the Interactive Media and Services industry average of 1.26x and just below its peer group, which averages 3.22x. However, a single number rarely tells the full story. This is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” comes in. The Fair Ratio for Bilibili is calculated at 1.98x, which blends together factors like its revenue growth, profit margins, company size, and the risks and opportunities unique to its segment.

Unlike a simple industry or peer comparison, the Fair Ratio offers a more nuanced and tailored view by factoring in how quickly Bilibili is growing, the nature of its profitability, its competitive position, and broader market conditions. This holistic approach helps avoid many of the pitfalls of “one size fits all” benchmarks.

Given Bilibili’s actual P/S of 2.71x compared to its Fair Ratio of 1.98x, the stock currently appears to be overvalued on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Bilibili Narrative

Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple, powerful tool that lets you connect your personal perspective about a company, such as Bilibili’s growth prospects, competitive strengths, or industry challenges, with the numbers that drive fair value: your forecasts for future revenue, margins, and earnings.

Your Narrative ties together the company’s story, your reasons for believing it will succeed (or not), and how those beliefs shape a financial forecast and fair value estimate. Rather than relying on generic analyst assumptions, you can build and continually update your own Narrative using tools available on Simply Wall St’s Community page. These tools are trusted by millions of investors.

Narratives make it easy to see if Bilibili is a buy, hold, or sell for you by comparing your fair value with the current market price. Plus, whenever new information hits, such as the latest financial results or major industry news, Narratives can be rapidly refreshed to reflect the evolving outlook.

For instance, some investors believe Bilibili’s strong Gen Z engagement and AI-driven expansion justify a fair value as high as $37.73. Others focus on competitive and regulatory risks, seeing a fair value closer to $22.14.

Do you think there's more to the story for Bilibili? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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