Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ:BILI) Third-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 23% over the past week following Bilibili Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BILI) latest third-quarter results. Revenues were a bright spot, with CN¥3.2b in sales arriving 4.6% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of CN¥3.08, some 8.3% below consensus predictions. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Bilibili

After the latest results, the 23 analysts covering Bilibili are now predicting revenues of CN¥16.6b in 2021. If met, this would reflect a substantial 64% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 30% to CN¥5.27. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥16.0b and losses of CN¥4.78 per share in 2021. While next year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of CN¥383, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Bilibili analyst has a price target of CN¥63.18 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥49.97. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Bilibili's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 64% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 46%p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% next year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Bilibili to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Bilibili. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥383, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Bilibili. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Bilibili going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Bilibili that you need to be mindful of.

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