Nucor Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.8% to US$176 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Revenues of US$8.1b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$3.46, missing estimates by 5.4%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Nucor

After the latest results, the consensus from Nucor's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$31.6b in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 7.4% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 31% to US$12.18 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$32.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.82 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$202 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Nucor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$240 and the most bearish at US$178 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.7% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Nucor is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nucor. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$202, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nucor going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Nucor (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.