Newmont (NEM): Assessing Valuation as Analyst Upgrades and Growth Initiatives Drive Fresh Investor Optimism

Newmont (NYSE:NEM) finds itself in the spotlight as investor interest heats up ahead of the company’s next earnings report. With gold prices near all-time highs and Newmont trading at a discount to peers, expectations for better results and growth are building.

See our latest analysis for Newmont.

After lagging much of last year, Newmont’s share price has burst higher in 2025 on the back of record gold prices and renewed investor optimism, booking a massive 122% year-to-date gain. Recent headlines, ranging from its Spring Peak project expansion to a notable CEO succession plan and ongoing cost-cutting moves, have added fuel to the rally and reinforced the idea that momentum is still building, not fading. While its latest 1-year total shareholder return of 60% trails the breakneck pace of 3-year returns, the stock continues to trade at a discount to peers. This keeps the value conversation front and center for investors weighing both upside and risk.

If Newmont’s growth run has your interest, this is a smart moment to see what else is trending and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

But with momentum surging and expectations running high, the key debate remains: is Newmont still an undervalued opportunity, or has the market fully priced in all this future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.2% Undervalued

Newmont's last close at $85.14 sits just below the most popular narrative’s fair value estimate of $88.91, hinting the stock could still have run room. With analyst outlooks refreshed and macro forces in play, here’s what could be fueling this view.

Persistent global inflation and monetary debasement are likely to reinforce investor and central bank demand for gold, which will support higher sustained gold prices and directly increase Newmont's future revenues and earnings. Newmont's focus on operational stability, cost discipline, and productivity enhancements (for example, at Lihir, Boddington, and across its core assets) is expected to drive lower operating costs and improved EBITDA margins, positioning the company for margin expansion and stronger net income over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what numbers justify this premium? There’s a bold set of growth assumptions driving this upside: revenue, earnings, and even the profit multiples. Discover which financial moves are making analysts bet on Newmont’s future and why some projections might surprise even seasoned investors.

Result: Fair Value of $88.91 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, downside risks remain, including lower ore grades at major sites and execution challenges in ongoing integration and operational upgrades, which could impact Newmont’s outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Newmont narrative.

Another View: What Does the DCF Model Say?

While analyst narratives and price targets suggest Newmont could be undervalued, our DCF model provides a more cautious perspective. The SWS DCF model estimates Newmont’s fair value at $78.86, which is lower than its current price. This raises the question: has the recent rally outpaced fundamentals, or is the market expecting further gains?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Newmont for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Newmont Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft a personalized view in just a few minutes. So why not Do it your way?

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Newmont.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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