Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) Just Released Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Last week, you might have seen that Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.4% to US$57.71 in the past week. Warrior Met Coal reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$1.7b and statutory earnings per share of US$9.20, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Warrior Met Coal

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Warrior Met Coal from six analysts is for revenues of US$1.71b in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 2.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 14% to US$7.88 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.62b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.36 in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Warrior Met Coal after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

There's been no major changes to the price target of US$71.17, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Warrior Met Coal analyst has a price target of US$90.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$60.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Warrior Met Coal shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Warrior Met Coal's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.8% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Warrior Met Coal is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Warrior Met Coal. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$71.17, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Warrior Met Coal going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Warrior Met Coal , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.