Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC)?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Warrior Met Coal's (NYSE:HCC) recent performance, when its stock has declined 7.9% over the past month. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Warrior Met Coal's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Warrior Met Coal is:

5.1% = US$105m ÷ US$2.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.05 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Warrior Met Coal

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Warrior Met Coal's Earnings Growth And 5.1% ROE

When you first look at it, Warrior Met Coal's ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 11% either. In spite of this, Warrior Met Coal was able to grow its net income considerably, at a rate of 26% in the last five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Warrior Met Coal's growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 11% in the same period, which is great to see.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Warrior Met Coal is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Warrior Met Coal Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Warrior Met Coal's ' three-year median payout ratio is on the lower side at 3.1% implying that it is retaining a higher percentage (97%) of its profits. So it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business and this reflects in its earnings growth number.

Moreover, Warrior Met Coal is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of eight years of paying a dividend. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 4.9% over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for Warrior Met Coal is speculated to rise to 6.5% despite the anticipated increase in the payout ratio. There could probably be other factors that could be driving the future growth in the ROE.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Warrior Met Coal certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Despite its low rate of return, the fact that the company reinvests a very high portion of its profits into its business, no doubt contributed to its high earnings growth. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.