Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK): Revisiting Valuation After a Sharp Year-To-Date Share Price Slide

Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) has slid about 26% over the past 3 months and more than 40% year to date, prompting investors to revisit whether the current share price still matches its fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Graphic Packaging Holding.

That slide has unwound most of Graphic Packaging Holding’s five year gains, with the steep year to date share price decline outpacing its three year total shareholder return drop and signaling momentum that is clearly fading despite modest underlying growth.

If this pullback has you rethinking your exposure to packaging and industrial names, it could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other compelling ideas.

With earnings still growing modestly and shares trading at a hefty discount to both analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates, investors face a key question: is this a genuine value opportunity, or is the market already bracing for weaker growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 19.6% Undervalued

With Graphic Packaging Holding last closing at $15.99 versus a narrative fair value of about $19.89, the stage is set by steady, efficiency driven compounding.

The company expects a sharp increase in free cash flow from 2026 onward, with capital expenditures dropping and operational efficiency gains from new capacity. This is expected to enable both debt reduction and large scale share repurchases that can accelerate EPS growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest growth, fatter margins, and a future earnings multiple usually reserved for higher growth names all come together to justify that upside?

Result: Fair Value of $19.89 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, softer packaging demand and rising competitive pressures could compress margins and stall volume growth, which may undermine assumptions behind the current upside narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Graphic Packaging Holding narrative.

Build Your Own Graphic Packaging Holding Narrative

If this outlook does not quite align with your view, dive into the numbers yourself and build a tailored story in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Graphic Packaging Holding research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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