Graphic Packaging Holding Company

NYSE:GPK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$8.3b

Graphic Packaging Holding Valuation

Is GPK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GPK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GPK ($27.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($87.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GPK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GPK?

Key metric: As GPK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GPK. This is calculated by dividing GPK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GPK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.5x
EarningsUS$716.00m
Market CapUS$8.27b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GPK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GPK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.4x
SON Sonoco Products
17.1x19.4%US$4.8b
AMCR Amcor
17.7x7.6%US$13.6b
SEE Sealed Air
12.5x10.0%US$5.0b
AVY Avery Dennison
22.2x10.4%US$15.0b
GPK Graphic Packaging Holding
11.5x6.4%US$8.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GPK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the peer average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GPK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Packaging Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GPK 11.5xIndustry Avg. 18.5xNo. of Companies5PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GPK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the North American Packaging industry average (18.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GPK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GPK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.5x
Fair PE Ratio16.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GPK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GPK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$27.40
US$32.53
+18.7%
10.3%US$36.80US$24.00n/a11
Dec ’25US$30.09
US$32.53
+8.1%
10.3%US$36.80US$24.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$28.28
US$32.09
+13.5%
10.0%US$36.80US$24.00n/a11
Oct ’25US$29.74
US$33.11
+11.3%
10.0%US$37.20US$24.00n/a12
Sep ’25US$29.93
US$33.31
+11.3%
9.7%US$37.20US$24.00n/a12
Aug ’25US$29.55
US$33.14
+12.2%
9.3%US$36.00US$24.00n/a12
Jul ’25US$25.90
US$30.17
+16.5%
10.3%US$33.00US$21.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$28.32
US$29.99
+5.9%
10.1%US$33.00US$21.00n/a11
May ’25US$26.04
US$30.53
+17.3%
10.2%US$34.00US$21.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$28.67
US$30.34
+5.8%
10.8%US$33.00US$21.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$25.48
US$30.10
+18.1%
11.2%US$33.00US$21.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$25.75
US$28.33
+10.0%
13.0%US$33.00US$20.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$24.65
US$27.67
+12.2%
14.4%US$33.00US$19.00n/a9
Dec ’24US$23.09
US$27.56
+19.3%
14.7%US$33.00US$19.00US$30.099
Nov ’24US$21.52
US$27.80
+29.2%
14.1%US$33.00US$19.00US$28.2810
Oct ’24US$22.28
US$29.70
+33.3%
9.3%US$35.00US$26.00US$29.7410
Sep ’24US$22.49
US$29.91
+33.0%
9.1%US$35.00US$26.00US$29.9311
Aug ’24US$23.24
US$30.17
+29.8%
10.4%US$35.00US$23.00US$29.5512
Jul ’24US$24.03
US$30.69
+27.7%
11.7%US$36.00US$23.00US$25.9013
Jun ’24US$24.16
US$31.23
+29.3%
9.4%US$37.00US$28.00US$28.3213
May ’24US$24.63
US$29.62
+20.2%
9.3%US$35.00US$25.00US$26.0413
Apr ’24US$25.49
US$29.15
+14.4%
10.5%US$35.00US$25.00US$28.6713
Mar ’24US$24.38
US$29.08
+19.3%
10.5%US$35.00US$25.00US$25.4813
Feb ’24US$23.76
US$27.93
+17.5%
13.2%US$33.00US$17.00US$25.7514
Jan ’24US$22.25
US$27.60
+24.0%
12.7%US$32.00US$17.00US$24.6515
Dec ’23US$22.93
US$27.13
+18.3%
12.0%US$32.00US$17.00US$23.0916

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 22:28
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is covered by 28 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ghansham PanjabiBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Mark WildeBMO Capital Markets Equity Research