Packaging Corporation of America

NYSE:PKG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$21.2b

Packaging Corporation of America Valuation

Is PKG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PKG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PKG ($244.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($400.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PKG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PKG?

Key metric: As PKG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PKG. This is calculated by dividing PKG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PKG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.4x
EarningsUS$767.70m
Market CapUS$21.25b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PKG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PKG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average55.6x
IP International Paper
48.7x28.5%US$20.1b
AVY Avery Dennison
23.6x10.7%US$15.8b
SW Smurfit Westrock
130.6x32.8%US$27.5b
AMCR Amcor
19.4x8.2%US$14.2b
PKG Packaging Corporation of America
28.4x10.9%US$21.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PKG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.4x) compared to the peer average (55.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PKG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Packaging Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PKG 28.4xIndustry Avg. 19.7xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PKG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.4x) compared to the North American Packaging industry average (19.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PKG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PKG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.4x
Fair PE Ratio19.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PKG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PKG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$244.10
US$214.27
-12.2%
22.5%US$271.00US$133.12n/a8
Nov ’25US$229.99
US$210.89
-8.3%
21.3%US$253.00US$133.12n/a8
Oct ’25US$215.29
US$188.27
-12.6%
18.2%US$219.00US$130.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$209.54
US$194.57
-7.1%
14.2%US$219.00US$130.00n/a8
Aug ’25US$198.00
US$194.57
-1.7%
14.2%US$219.00US$130.00n/a8
Jul ’25US$180.06
US$180.82
+0.4%
13.2%US$208.00US$123.00n/a8
Jun ’25US$183.49
US$180.00
-1.9%
14.0%US$208.00US$123.00n/a7
May ’25US$174.20
US$174.63
+0.2%
13.2%US$197.00US$123.00n/a8
Apr ’25US$188.75
US$168.25
-10.9%
13.8%US$202.00US$121.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$180.19
US$165.25
-8.3%
12.1%US$185.00US$121.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$163.14
US$165.38
+1.4%
12.1%US$185.00US$121.00n/a8
Jan ’25US$162.91
US$153.71
-5.6%
13.0%US$173.00US$114.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$169.71
US$152.46
-10.2%
13.5%US$173.00US$114.00n/a8
Nov ’24US$153.60
US$148.21
-3.5%
12.2%US$170.00US$114.00US$229.998
Oct ’24US$153.55
US$146.13
-4.8%
11.8%US$170.00US$113.00US$215.298
Sep ’24US$149.56
US$138.89
-7.1%
13.8%US$165.00US$105.00US$209.549
Aug ’24US$153.10
US$138.89
-9.3%
13.8%US$165.00US$105.00US$198.009
Jul ’24US$132.16
US$129.10
-2.3%
14.3%US$165.00US$103.00US$180.0610
Jun ’24US$124.83
US$130.10
+4.2%
14.0%US$165.00US$106.00US$183.4910
May ’24US$138.15
US$130.10
-5.8%
14.0%US$165.00US$106.00US$174.2010
Apr ’24US$138.83
US$130.31
-6.1%
14.4%US$165.00US$104.00US$188.7510
Mar ’24US$138.70
US$131.11
-5.5%
14.3%US$165.00US$104.00US$180.1910
Feb ’24US$142.15
US$130.51
-8.2%
14.0%US$165.00US$104.00US$163.1410
Jan ’24US$127.91
US$128.71
+0.6%
13.8%US$165.00US$99.00US$162.9110
Dec ’23US$136.16
US$127.83
-6.1%
13.7%US$165.00US$99.00US$169.7111
Nov ’23US$120.59
US$127.30
+5.6%
15.0%US$172.00US$99.00US$153.6010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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