Packaging Corporation of America

NYSE:PKG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$20.4b

Packaging Corporation of America Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Packaging of America is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 17.4% and 5.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 17.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 20.4% in 3 years.

Key information

17.4%

Earnings growth rate

17.94%

EPS growth rate

Packaging earnings growth24.1%
Revenue growth rate5.3%
Future return on equity20.40%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated01 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Oct 28

Packaging Corporation of America Just Missed EPS By 12%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Packaging Corporation of America ( NYSE:PKG ) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how...

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jun 03

PKG: 2026 Dividend Hike And Pricing Power Are Expected To Support Margins

Analysts have nudged their implied fair value for Packaging Corporation of America to $235.9 per share. This move is supported by recent price target increases toward $248 and expectations that June’s $50 per ton price hike, tighter capacity and the company’s lack of European exposure could support slightly stronger revenue growth and margins under current assumptions.
Narrative Update • May 19

PKG: 2026 Dividend And Margin Upside Are Expected To Support Rebound

Analysts have raised the Packaging Corporation of America fair value estimate from $226.40 to $234.30, citing a combination of higher expected profit margins, a lower assumed discount rate, and updated P/E assumptions following a series of recent price target moves and an upgrade that noted a potential positive inflection. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Packaging Corporation of America has been active and mixed, with several firms adjusting price targets and one upgrade highlighting what it called a potential positive inflection in the story.
Narrative Update • Apr 29

PKG: Weaker Containerboard Pricing Will Pressure Margins And 2026 Earnings

Analysts have lifted the implied fair value estimate for Packaging Corporation of America from about $168 to roughly $182, reflecting recent mixed but active revisions to price targets as they reassess revenue growth expectations, profit margins, and the appropriate forward P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Packaging Corporation of America spans a wide range of price target moves and rating updates, giving you a mixed picture of how professionals are framing the risk and reward tradeoff.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 23

Packaging Corporation of America: Valuation Remains Full Despite A Solid Q1

Summary Packaging Corporation of America delivered strong Q1 results, with EPS of $2.40 beating guidance and revenue up 11% to $2.4 billion. PKG continues to gain market share but faces margin pressure from elevated input and freight costs and risks from sustained energy inflation. Q2 guidance of $2.33 EPS is below consensus, driven by planned maintenance outages and higher corporate expenses, but underlying demand remains robust. With shares near my $200 fair value estimate, I maintain a "Sell" rating due to cyclical margin risks and limited upside at current valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 14

PKG: 2026 Pricing And Buybacks Are Expected To Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts have trimmed the Packaging Corporation of America price target by about $4 to $226.40, reflecting updated views on softer revenue growth, margin pressure, a slightly higher discount rate, and a higher future P/E assumption following recent sector research and price target revisions from major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Packaging Corporation of America shows a mix of optimism and caution, with multiple firms adjusting price targets in both directions and one major bank highlighting sector headwinds tied to containerboard pricing.
Narrative Update • Mar 31

PKG: Discipline In Supply Management Is Expected To Support Future Upside

Analyst price targets on Packaging Corporation of America have shifted within a relatively tight range, with some firms nudging targets higher toward $273 and others trimming them toward about $226 as analysts balance mixed views on containerboard pricing, volume headwinds into 2026, and updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Packaging Corporation of America reflects a mix of cautious and constructive views on the containerboard cycle, pricing trends, and volume expectations into 2026.
Narrative Update • Mar 17

PKG: Future Pricing Power And Margin Discipline Expected To Support Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Packaging Corporation of America slightly lower from $273.00 to $270.00, reflecting softer containerboard pricing and a more cautious revenue growth outlook, partly offset by firmer profit margin assumptions and slightly lower discount and future P/E inputs. Analyst Commentary Street research on Packaging Corporation of America has tilted more cautious on near term pricing, but several bullish analysts still see support for the shares based on execution, relative valuation and potential for future containerboard pricing power.
Narrative Update • Mar 03

PKG: Containerboard Price Weakness Will Challenge 2026 Returns

Analysts have nudged their price targets for Packaging Corporation of America higher overall, with moves such as BofA's increase to $255 and Truist's to $273, while smaller trims from other firms partly offset these changes. The revisions reflect mixed views on containerboard pricing, demand softness, and the potential for disciplined supply management to support margins and valuation multiples.
Narrative Update • Feb 17

PKG: 2026 Volume Headwinds And Mill Restructuring May Pressure Returns

Analysts have lifted their average price target for Packaging Corporation of America by about $8 to reflect updated views on containerboard pricing power, changes in projected 2026 volumes, and a slightly higher assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Packaging Corporation of America points to a mixed backdrop, with some firms lifting price targets and others trimming estimates as they reassess containerboard volumes and valuation assumptions heading into 2026.
Narrative Update • Feb 03

PKG: 2026 Pricing And Mill Restructuring Are Expected To Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for Packaging Corporation of America to $230.40, up from $225.40. The revision reflects updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples, informed by recent mixed price target moves and rating changes across the Street.
Narrative Update • Jan 20

PKG: Containerboard Pricing Execution Is Expected To Drive Future Upside

Narrative Update on Packaging Corporation of America The analyst fair value estimate for Packaging Corporation of America has been lifted by $10 to $273, reflecting updated views from recent Street research that highlight mixed volume expectations into 2026, along with support from disciplined containerboard supply management, ongoing beverage can growth in North America and Europe, and containerboard price increases that analysts expect producers to implement successfully. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research shows a mix of caution on packaging volumes and consumer health, but also a cluster of supportive price targets and at least one upgrade that collectively frame Packaging Corporation of America as a name where execution on pricing and integration could matter as much as end demand.
Narrative Update • Jan 05

PKG: Greif Acquisition And Containerboard Pricing Are Expected To Drive Upside

Narrative Update on Packaging Corporation of America Our analyst price target for Packaging Corporation of America moves to $263 from $244 as analysts factor in updated earnings forecasts, a higher discount rate, revised revenue growth and margin assumptions, and a lower future P/E, along with their views on potential effects from the Greif acquisition and containerboard pricing. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are updating their views on Packaging Corporation of America to reflect revised earnings estimates, ongoing industry pricing actions, and expected contributions from the pending Greif acquisition.
Narrative Update • Dec 15

PKG: Greif Deal And 2026 Pricing Are Expected To Drive Balanced Outlook

Analysts nudged their fair value estimate for Packaging Corporation of America slightly higher to about $225 from roughly $225, citing modestly improved long term earnings power driven by containerboard pricing tailwinds, the benefits of recent containerboard asset acquisitions, and the company’s strong balance sheet and cash flow profile despite some trimmed Street price targets. Analyst Commentary Street research on Packaging Corporation of America reflects a generally constructive outlook on earnings power and valuation, tempered by some caution around near term risk and the current premium multiple.
Narrative Update • Dec 01

PKG: Greif Acquisition Will Strengthen Scale While Market Awaits 2026 Pricing Trends

Narrative Update on Packaging Corporation of America Analysts have slightly lowered their average price target for Packaging Corporation of America by $0.20 to $224.70, citing revised earnings estimates and a balanced industry outlook following recent acquisition activity and evolving sector fundamentals. Analyst Commentary Recent research and updates from major brokerages present a nuanced outlook on Packaging Corporation of America, reflecting both optimism for future performance and some ongoing caution regarding sector dynamics and company-specific factors.
Narrative Update • Nov 17

PKG: Greif Acquisition Will Boost Scale And Drive Dividend Upside Ahead

Analysts have recently adjusted their price targets for Packaging Corporation of America, with the average target changing by less than $1 as they consider the impact of industry supply shifts, stable margins, and benefits from the Greif acquisition. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reveals a mix of optimism and caution regarding Packaging Corporation of America's outlook, with price targets moving both up and down as analysts assess the company's strategic initiatives and industry dynamics.
Narrative Update • Nov 01

PKG: Recent Acquisition And Anticipated Price Increases Will Drive Upside

Analysts have slightly raised their average price target for Packaging Corporation of America. Updated forecasts reflect improved revenue growth projections and anticipated benefits from recent acquisitions, resulting in an increase of approximately $0.70 to $224.90 per share.
Analysis Article • Oct 28

Packaging Corporation of America Just Missed EPS By 12%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Packaging Corporation of America ( NYSE:PKG ) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how...
Narrative Update • Oct 18

Glendale Box Plant And Pricing Adjustments Will Strengthen Operations

The analyst price target for Packaging Corporation of America has increased by $5.50 to $224.20. This change reflects improved profit margin expectations, stronger revenue growth projections, and positive impacts from recent acquisitions, as highlighted by analysts.
Narrative Update • Oct 03

Glendale Box Plant And Pricing Adjustments Will Strengthen Operations

Packaging Corporation of America's analyst price target has been raised from $216.11 to $218.70. Analysts cite improved industry dynamics, recent strategic acquisitions, and positive supply-side shifts as supporting factors for a stronger growth outlook.
Narrative Update • Sep 18

Glendale Box Plant And Pricing Adjustments Will Strengthen Operations

Analysts have raised their price target for Packaging Corporation of America to $216.11, citing increased growth potential and cash flow from the Greif containerboard asset acquisition, improving demand and industry supply/demand dynamics, and the potential for higher dividends. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight increased scale and capacity from the acquisition of Greif’s containerboard assets, providing greater growth optionality over several years.
Analysis Article • Aug 24

Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) Has Announced A Dividend Of $1.25

Packaging Corporation of America ( NYSE:PKG ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $1.25 per share on the 15th...
Analysis Article • Aug 22

Does Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Analysis Article • Jul 17

Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) Shares Could Be 42% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Packaging Corporation of America fair value estimate is US$350...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 23

Packaging Corporation of America: Guidance Points To Significant Weakness Ahead

Summary Packaging Corporation of America shares dropped due to disappointing Q2 guidance, despite solid Q1 performance. Management's downbeat Q2 guidance, driven by rising trade tensions and potential tariffs, signals significant cyclical headwinds and reduced demand. PKG's strong balance sheet and prudent production cuts are positives, but the stock remains overvalued given the macroeconomic uncertainties and expected earnings decline. I maintain a "sell" rating on PKG, with a revised fair value of $160-$165, reflecting limited upside and continued downside risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 02

Packaging Corporation of America: Turning Bullish As Momentum Builds (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Packaging Corporation of America delivered strong consolidated revenue growth last quarter, supported by a resilient demand environment, particularly in its packaging segment. Robust shipment growth and recent price increase are expected to fuel top line growth in the quarters ahead. Despite inflationary pressures, PKG's focus on cost efficiencies and pricing benefits should support margin expansion in FY25 and beyond. The stock trades slightly above peers and historical averages but is positioned for continued growth, making it a decent long-term buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 24

Packaging Corporation of America: Overvaluation Makes It A 'Hold' Rather Than A 'Buy'

Summary PKG is a well-managed, fundamentally strong company, but its current valuation at $227/share is overvalued, making it a "Hold" rather than a "Buy." The company's impressive performance, including a near-doubling of share price and strong fundamentals, is overshadowed by its current 26x P/E ratio. I recommend reallocating capital to UPM Kymmene, which offers better valuation, higher yield, and significant upside potential compared to PKG. A fair investment price for PKG would be around $145/share, where it could offer a 15% annualized return with a 3%+ yield. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 08

Packaging Corporation Of America: Pricing Pressure And Softer Demand

Summary PKG is a market leader in containerboard and corrugated packaging, maintaining strong profitability despite FY23 challenges from pricing pressures and softer demand. The firm will continue to implement price increases on key products in response to inflationary pressures and cost increases. Its strategic investments and record production levels position them well for future growth, particularly with the ongoing e-commerce surge. However, current valuation is elevated, lacking a margin of safety amid margin pressures and potential cost inflation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:PKG - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202810,7971,1661,1291,9557
12/31/202710,4981,1111,0071,83910
12/31/202610,0098807871,64510
3/31/20269,2167367021,548N/A
12/31/20258,9897697291,558N/A
9/30/20258,7728887251,436N/A
6/30/20258,6419006251,291N/A
3/31/20258,5458565291,270N/A
12/31/20248,3838005221,191N/A
9/30/20248,1757765921,201N/A
6/30/20247,9297186611,214N/A
3/31/20247,8067168611,295N/A
12/31/20237,8027598451,315N/A
9/30/20237,8437818241,400N/A
6/30/20238,0338608261,491N/A
3/31/20238,3189587271,450N/A
12/31/20228,4781,0226711,495N/A
9/30/20228,5431,0276501,466N/A
6/30/20228,4171,0155331,319N/A
3/31/20228,0609224951,228N/A
12/31/20217,7308354891,094N/A
9/30/20217,401742441975N/A
6/30/20217,095632503989N/A
3/31/20216,757482552988N/A
12/31/20206,6584576121,033N/A
9/30/20206,6644707021,091N/A
6/30/20206,7215107531,133N/A
3/31/20206,9396468171,208N/A
12/31/20196,964691N/A1,207N/A
9/30/20196,991759N/A1,224N/A
6/30/20197,050786N/A1,185N/A
3/31/20197,058779N/A1,214N/A
12/31/20187,015732N/A1,180N/A
9/30/20186,952796N/A1,107N/A
6/30/20186,783729N/A1,004N/A
3/31/20186,599686N/A895N/A
12/31/20176,445663N/A856N/A
9/30/20176,237506N/A797N/A
6/30/20176,081486N/A816N/A
3/31/20175,915459N/A780N/A
12/31/20165,779445N/A807N/A
9/30/20165,693439N/A814N/A
6/30/20165,680447N/A834N/A
3/31/20165,717445N/A845N/A
12/31/20155,742432N/A769N/A
9/30/20155,785426N/A721N/A
6/30/20155,833402N/A707N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PKG's forecast earnings growth (17.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: PKG's earnings (17.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (18.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PKG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: PKG's revenue (5.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PKG's revenue (5.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PKG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (20.4%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/16 01:43
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/16 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Packaging Corporation of America is covered by 25 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Scott GaffnerBarclays
Stephen AtkinsonBMO Capital Markets Equity Research