Graphic Packaging Holding Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
Graphic Packaging Holding has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 13.8%, while the Packaging industry saw earnings declining at 1.7% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 4.1% per year. Graphic Packaging Holding's return on equity is 8.4%, and it has net margins of 3.2%.
Key information
13.83%
Earnings growth rate
13.51%
EPS growth rate
| Packaging Industry Growth | 12.01% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.09% |
| Return on equity | 8.44% |
| Net Margin | 3.17% |
| Next Earnings Update | 04 Aug 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 29
GPK: 2026 Guidance And Buybacks Will Underpin Potential Private Equity Repricing
The analyst price target for Graphic Packaging Holding has been reduced by $3 to reflect a lower fair value estimate and more conservative assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E. This change is in line with recent target cuts and more cautious views from several firms.Narrative Update • Apr 15
GPK: 2026 Guidance And Buybacks Will Support Rerating Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Graphic Packaging Holding, and the updated fair value estimate moves from $21.85 to about $20.36 as they factor in more conservative revenue growth, lower profit margins, a slightly higher discount rate, and a higher future P/E assumption. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Graphic Packaging Holding has leaned cautious on price targets, but it also highlights several supportive factors that bullish analysts continue to watch closely.
Narrative Update • Mar 31
GPK: 2026 Pricing And Volume Uncertainty Will Limit Multiple Expansion
Analysts have reduced the fair value estimate for Graphic Packaging Holding by $2 to $9.00, citing a more cautious outlook that reflects recent price target cuts across the Street, a slightly higher discount rate, softer projected revenue growth and profit margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Graphic Packaging reflects a more cautious tone, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets and, in at least one case, downgrading the rating while keeping price targets unchanged.Seeking Alpha • Mar 29
Graphic Packaging Holding: Falling Earnings Make This A Hold
Summary Graphic Packaging Holding Company is rated Hold, due to stalled growth, margin compression, and high leverage, despite a seemingly attractive 4.7% dividend yield. GPK's EBITDA is guided to decline another ~20% in 2026, with free cash flow improvements driven by lower capex rather than operational gains. Valuation appears discounted, but equity value is highly sensitive to EBITDA changes, given $5.9 billion in debt; rerating requires visible margin recovery and deleveraging. The dividend is currently safe but lacks consistency, and the stock's upside is contingent on execution, cost control, and margin stabilization. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Mar 17
GPK: Leadership Transition And 2026 Volume Reset Will Drive Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed the average price target for Graphic Packaging by several dollars to around the high teens in dollar terms, citing recent management changes, a tougher pricing setup for paperboard grades, and a more cautious 2026 volume outlook across the packaging group. Analyst Commentary Across recent research, the tone around Graphic Packaging has shifted toward more cautious expectations for 2026, but there are still a few clear pockets of optimism that readers should understand when thinking about valuation, execution and growth.Narrative Update • Mar 03
GPK: Leadership Change And 2026 Volume Setup Will Drive Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Graphic Packaging Holding by $0.15 to $21.85. This reflects recent Street research that cites estimate revision risk tied to management changes, a tougher setup for 2026 packaging volumes, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Feb 17
GPK: Deteriorating 2026 Pricing And Volume Outlook Will Pressure Earnings
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Graphic Packaging Holding to $11.00 from $15.00. This reflects updated views on revenue trends, profit margins and the appropriate P/E multiple following a series of recent price target cuts and rating changes across the Street.Narrative Update • Feb 03
GPK: Leadership Transition And 2026 Execution Will Support Stronger Long-Term Outlook
Narrative Update Our analyst price target for Graphic Packaging Holding has shifted from $23.00 to $22.00, reflecting analysts' mixed views, as some firms trim targets on concerns around 2026 volumes, pricing and leadership changes, while others still see room for upside and have nudged targets higher. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Graphic Packaging Holding highlights a split view, with several firms lowering price targets and ratings, while some bullish analysts still see room for upside tied to execution and long term growth potential.
Narrative Update • Jan 20
GPK: Packaging Pricing And Governance Reset Will Support Medium Term Upside
The analyst price target for Graphic Packaging Holding has been reset to US$17.17 from US$19.89 as analysts factor in updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E in light of recent rating changes and cautious commentary on 2026 packaging volumes and pricing. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Graphic Packaging Holding reflects a mixed view, with price targets generally being reset in a tighter US$16 to US$18 range and ratings clustering around Neutral or Hold.Narrative Update • Jan 06
GPK: Governance Shakeup Will Set Up A Stronger Long-Term Outlook
Analysts have cut their price target on Graphic Packaging Holding to about $23, down from roughly $31.74. They cite updated assumptions for fair value, a higher discount rate, softer revenue growth expectations, lower profit margins, and a slightly reduced future P/E.Narrative Update • Dec 18
GPK: Softer Demand And Leadership Changes Will Shape A Cautious Outlook
Analysts have reduced their price target for Graphic Packaging Holding from $24 to $20 per share, citing softer demand conditions and tempered growth expectations reflected in lower sector estimates. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have recently trimmed their price targets for Graphic Packaging, signaling mounting caution around the companys near term outlook and the broader packaging sector.Analysis Article • Dec 10
Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of $0.11
Graphic Packaging Holding Company's ( NYSE:GPK ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.11 per share on 7th of...Narrative Update • Dec 04
GPK: Operational Discipline Will Support Upside Despite Softer Packaging Demand
Analysts modestly reduced their price target on Graphic Packaging Holding by about $0.15 per share to reflect slightly lower fair value estimates and softer containers and packaging market conditions that have led to recent target cuts from $23 to $24 to around $20 to $21. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious stance on Graphic Packaging Holding, with modestly lower price targets signaling tempered expectations for upside in the near term.Narrative Update • Nov 20
GPK: Operational Discipline Will Drive Resilience Amid Changing Market Conditions
Analysts have lowered their price target for Graphic Packaging Holding by nearly $3 to $20 per share. They cite reduced estimates and softer market conditions in the packaging industry.Narrative Update • Nov 05
GPK: Cost Controls And Market Stability Will Support Long-Term Upside
The analyst price target for Graphic Packaging Holding has recently decreased, dropping by over $1 to reflect a new range near $21. Analysts cite softer market conditions and revised sector estimates as key factors.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Signal Caution on Graphic Packaging Holding Amid Lowered Price Targets and Softer Market Conditions
Analysts have lowered their price targets for Graphic Packaging Holding by several dollars. This reflects more cautious expectations due to ongoing softer market conditions in the packaging industry.Narrative Update • Oct 08
Sustainable Recycled Packaging Will Secure Future Market Leadership
Analysts have lowered their price target for Graphic Packaging Holding from $25.70 to $24.95, citing expectations for softer market conditions as well as a modest reduction in revenue growth and profit margin forecasts. Analyst Commentary Analysts have issued mixed commentary following the recent price target adjustments for Graphic Packaging Holding.Analysis Article • Sep 09
Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • Aug 22
Many Still Looking Away From Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK)
Graphic Packaging Holding Company's ( NYSE:GPK ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.7x might make it look like a...Analysis Article • Aug 04
Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.11
The board of Graphic Packaging Holding Company ( NYSE:GPK ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.11 per...Analysis Article • Jul 23
Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Seeking Alpha • Mar 26
Graphic Packaging: Steady Volumes Despite A Weak Consumer Environment
Summary Graphic Packaging's strategic divestiture of the Augusta facility and investment in the Waco facility aims to optimize capital allocation and enhance long-term profitability. Despite a challenging 2024, the company managed volume pressures and protected margins, with a stable outlook for 2025 driven by innovation and productivity gains. Trading at a discount to peers, Graphic Packaging presents an attractive entry point, with significant upside potential as the Waco facility comes online in late 2025. I maintain a 'buy' rating, anticipating a cash flow inflection and enhanced EBITDA from Waco, positioning the company well for a potential recovery. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 24
Is Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) Using Too Much Debt?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • Mar 08
Graphic Packaging Holding Company's (NYSE:GPK) Earnings Are Not Doing Enough For Some Investors
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.7x Graphic Packaging Holding Company ( NYSE:GPK ) may be sending...Analysis Article • Jan 27
Graphic Packaging Holding's (NYSE:GPK) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...Analysis Article • Dec 16
Should You Be Adding Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) To Your Watchlist Today?
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Analysis Article • Dec 03
Why Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) Could Be Worth Watching
Graphic Packaging Holding Company ( NYSE:GPK ), might not be a large cap stock, but it had a relatively subdued couple...Analysis Article • Nov 18
Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.10
Graphic Packaging Holding Company's ( NYSE:GPK ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.10 per share on 5th of...Analysis Article • Oct 19
Is Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Seeking Alpha • Oct 18
Graphic Packaging: Shares Are Cheap Enough To Compensate For Weak Results
Summary Graphic Packaging Holding Company remains a 'buy' despite recent revenue and profitability declines, as shares are attractively priced relative to similar firms. The company faced a 6.9% revenue decline due to pricing, volume, product mix changes, and divestitures, particularly in paperboard demand. Profitability metrics, including net income and EBITDA, have weakened, but disruptions are short-term, and long-term prospects remain solid. Analysts expect Q3 2024 revenue of $2.29 billion and EPS of $0.66, indicating potential recovery and continued investment appeal. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Sep 04
Fewer Investors Than Expected Jumping On Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK)
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may...
New Narrative • Aug 27
Innovating Sustainable Packaging Solutions To Propel Revenue And Margin Growth
Graphic Packaging Holding's focus on sustainable consumer packaging innovation aims to cater to increasing consumer demand for environmentally friendly products.Analysis Article • Aug 19
Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.10
Graphic Packaging Holding Company ( NYSE:GPK ) will pay a dividend of $0.10 on the 5th of October. Including this...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Graphic Packaging Holding makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 8,653 | 274 | 712 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 8,617 | 444 | 706 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 8,609 | 511 | 736 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 8,635 | 534 | 765 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 8,668 | 620 | 757 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 8,807 | 658 | 777 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 8,961 | 716 | 789 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 9,094 | 721 | 818 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 9,249 | 681 | 826 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 9,428 | 723 | 808 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 9,565 | 683 | 827 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 9,667 | 706 | 807 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 9,633 | 622 | 786 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 9,440 | 522 | 767 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 9,042 | 405 | 712 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 8,373 | 285 | 638 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 7,752 | 257 | 578 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 7,156 | 204 | 523 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 6,820 | 229 | 494 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 6,736 | 220 | 493 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 6,610 | 234 | 501 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 6,560 | 167 | 664 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 6,428 | 136 | 708 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 6,311 | 124 | 714 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 6,253 | 136 | 714 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 6,160 | 207 | 551 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 6,150 | 221 | 500 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 6,100 | 264 | 483 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 6,058 | 249 | 464 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 6,029 | 221 | 457 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 5,630 | 348 | 420 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 5,236 | 301 | 393 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 4,820 | 293 | 361 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 4,406 | 300 | 333 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 4,351 | 161 | 351 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 4,317 | 172 | 342 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 4,326 | 208 | 355 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 4,298 | 228 | 365 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 4,266 | 250 | 351 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 4,232 | 253 | 355 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 4,186 | 233 | 351 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 4,160 | 230 | 348 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 4,136 | 214 | 344 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 4,116 | 207 | 344 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: GPK has a large one-off loss of $107.0M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 31st March, 2026.
Growing Profit Margin: GPK's current net profit margins (3.2%) are lower than last year (7.2%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: GPK's earnings have grown by 13.8% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: GPK's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: GPK had negative earnings growth (-55.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Packaging industry average (-1.6%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: GPK's Return on Equity (8.4%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/11 18:41 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/08 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Graphic Packaging Holding Company is covered by 25 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Ghansham Panjabi | Baird |
| Mark Wilde | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| George Staphos | BofA Global Research |