How Dow’s US$3 Billion Infrastructure Stake Sale At Dow (DOW) Has Changed Its Investment Story

• Dow Inc. recently completed a partnership with Macquarie, selling a 49% stake in certain U.S. Gulf Coast infrastructure assets for about US$3.00 billion, while also tightening capital expenditure and reporting gains in its Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment in Q3 2025.
• This combination of a large cash inflow, sharper spending discipline, and improving segment performance highlights Dow’s focus on strengthening its balance sheet and refocusing on higher-return operations.
• We’ll now examine how Dow’s US$3.00 billion infrastructure stake sale reshapes its investment narrative around cash flow, flexibility, and future earnings.

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Dow Investment Narrative Recap

To own Dow today, you need to believe that tighter capital spending and asset sales can offset weak demand and margin pressure, especially in polyethylene. The US$3.00 billion Gulf Coast infrastructure stake sale materially supports the key short term catalyst of stronger cash flow and balance sheet resilience, but it does not remove the core risk of prolonged macro softness and elevated input costs weighing on profitability.

Among recent developments, Dow’s decision to delay construction on its Path2Zero project in Fort Saskatchewan lines up directly with the Gulf Coast transaction, together reinforcing the current focus on conserving cash and prioritizing higher return uses of capital. For investors, these moves frame the next phase of the story around how efficiently Dow can cut costs, manage energy exposure, and redeploy fresh liquidity without compromising longer term growth options.

Yet even with more cash on hand, investors should be aware that prolonged margin pressure from feedstock and energy costs could still...

Read the full narrative on Dow (it's free!)

Dow's narrative projects $43.6 billion revenue and $1.5 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 1.4% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $2.5 billion from -$994.0 million.

Uncover how Dow's forecasts yield a $27.82 fair value, a 13% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eleven fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$13.86 to US$41.52, showing how differently individuals view Dow’s potential. When you set those views against the near term focus on cash conservation and margin pressure, it underlines why checking several perspectives before forming your own outlook can be so important.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Dow - why the stock might be worth as much as 69% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Dow Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Dow research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Dow research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Dow's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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