Should You Reassess Coeur Mining Shares After Their 44% Surge This Month?

If you have been watching the metals space, chances are Coeur Mining has caught your eye lately. The stock has been on an incredible run. Just in the past month, it’s up a remarkable 44.3%. Year-to-date, Coeur’s share price has soared by 238.9%, reflecting an impressive rebound and renewed optimism from the market. Over the last three years, the story gets even more dramatic, with a return of 472.5%. That kind of surge usually gets even cautious investors wondering what’s next and whether there’s more room to run.

Momentum like this is rarely random. Recent positive sentiment has swirled around expectations for precious metals, with gold and silver prices getting a boost amid shifting macro trends and a resurgent appetite for mining equities. This enthusiasm has clearly been reflected in Coeur Mining’s share price. But with such a steep climb, potential investors are inevitably asking: Is the stock still a bargain, or are we late to the party?

That’s where valuation comes into play. When stacking Coeur Mining up against six key valuation measures, the company unfortunately doesn’t appear undervalued in any. It scores a 0 out of 6 on our value checks. That’s not to say there isn’t a story here, but it raises the stakes for careful analysis. In the next section, we’ll dig into exactly how valuation metrics frame the debate for Coeur and why, before you make any decisions, there may be a smarter way to look at value in this dynamic sector.

Coeur Mining scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Coeur Mining Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates the value of a company by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today's dollars. This approach helps investors gauge what the business is really worth based on its ability to generate cash over time, rather than relying solely on market prices or near-term profit.

For Coeur Mining, the most recent reported Free Cash Flow (FCF) is $41.8 million. Analysts have provided FCF estimates for the next several years, including a projected jump to $395 million by 2028. Projections beyond that, extending to 2035, show a mix of slight declines and moderate growth, but those estimates become increasingly speculative as they rely more on extrapolation than analyst coverage.

After accounting for all projected cash flows and discounting them appropriately, the DCF model puts Coeur Mining's fair value at $11.64 per share. However, based on recent market prices, the stock is currently 80.5% above this intrinsic value, implying it is significantly overvalued according to this framework.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Coeur Mining.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Coeur Mining may be overvalued by 80.5%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Coeur Mining Price vs Earnings

For established and profitable companies like Coeur Mining, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used and appropriate measure of valuation. The PE ratio allows investors to compare a company’s share price to its net earnings, providing a quick gauge of how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of profit. Growth expectations and risk significantly influence what is considered a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio. High-growth, lower-risk companies typically command higher multiples. In contrast, slower-growing or riskier firms warrant lower ones.

Currently, Coeur Mining trades at a PE ratio of 70.8x. This is markedly above the metals and mining industry average of 24.5x, as well as above the peer group average of 21.1x. At first glance, this suggests that the stock carries a premium valuation relative to its sector and direct competitors.

However, Simply Wall St’s "Fair Ratio" offers a more nuanced perspective. This proprietary metric sets a benchmark PE ratio by factoring in not just the company's growth outlook, but also its profit margins, industry classification, market capitalization, and specific risk profile. Unlike simple industry or peer averages, the Fair Ratio is designed to capture all the context that actually impacts what the market should pay for a company’s earnings.

For Coeur Mining, the Fair Ratio is calculated at 51.3x. Compared to the actual PE ratio of 70.8x, the stock is priced significantly above what its fundamentals and risk-adjusted growth potential would warrant.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Coeur Mining Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a user’s personal story or thesis about a company’s future, where you set your own expectations for things like fair value, revenue, earnings, and profit margins. Essentially, you put your perspective behind the numbers. Narratives connect how a company’s story translates into financial forecasts and then directly into a fair value, allowing you to move beyond one-size-fits-all models.

This process is easy and accessible. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors can build, update, and share Narratives as news breaks or earnings are released, giving real-time context to buy or sell decisions. By comparing your Narrative’s Fair Value to the current Price, you can see immediately if your unique outlook makes the stock a bargain or not. For example, one investor might build a bullish Narrative for Coeur Mining with higher silver prices and assume a fair value of $17.03, while another may take a more cautious stance, setting the fair value at just $12.00. This illustrates how Narratives capture the full range of perspectives and options for your decision-making process.

Do you think there's more to the story for Coeur Mining? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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