Assessing Agnico Eagle After a 108% Surge in 2025

• If you are wondering whether Agnico Eagle Mines is still worth buying after its big run, you are not alone. Let's break down what the price is really telling us about value from here.
• The stock has climbed an impressive 107.8% year to date and 102.5% over the last 12 months, even if the last week was a modest soft patch with a -0.6% move.
• That surge has come as gold prices have stayed strong and investors have rotated back into quality producers, with Agnico regularly highlighted in market commentary as a go to name for exposure to lower risk gold production. On top of that, the company has been in the spotlight for its disciplined capital allocation and relatively clean balance sheet, which many see as a safer way to play the precious metals cycle.
• Yet despite the excitement, Agnico Eagle scores just 1 out of 6 on our valuation checks, which might surprise anyone expecting a clear cut bargain. Next we will walk through the major valuation approaches investors use for this stock, before finishing with a more holistic way to think about what it is really worth.

Agnico Eagle Mines scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Agnico Eagle Mines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today in $ terms.

For Agnico Eagle Mines, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts from last twelve months free cash flow of roughly $3.5 billion and uses analyst forecasts for the next few years, then extrapolates beyond that. On Simply Wall St’s projections, annual free cash flow is expected to trend down to about $2.6 billion in 2035 as growth normalizes after the current investment and pricing cycle.

When all these projected cash flows are discounted back and combined with a terminal value, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $106.54 per share. Compared with the current market price, this implies the stock is roughly 59.9% overvalued on a pure cash flow basis. In other words, investors are paying a premium well above what the long term cash generation currently supports.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Agnico Eagle Mines may be overvalued by 59.9%. Discover 907 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Agnico Eagle Mines.

Approach 2: Agnico Eagle Mines Price vs Earnings

For a profitable, established producer like Agnico Eagle, the price to earnings ratio is a natural way to gauge value because it links what investors pay today to the earnings the business is already generating. In general, faster and more reliable earnings growth, and lower perceived risk, justify a higher normal PE, while slower growth or higher risk usually mean that a lower multiple is more appropriate.

Agnico Eagle currently trades on about 24.8x earnings, which is very close to both its metals and mining industry average of roughly 22.8x and the peer group average of around 25.0x. On the surface, that suggests the market is valuing Agnico broadly in line with comparable names, neither applying a clear premium nor a discount.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Agnico sits at about 23.8x. This is an estimate of the PE the stock could reasonably have once its specific earnings growth outlook, margins, risk profile, industry and market cap are taken into account. Because this Fair Ratio adjusts for those fundamentals, it can be a more tailored benchmark than a simple comparison with peers or the sector. With the current PE just a little above the Fair Ratio, the stock appears slightly expensive on this measure, but not dramatically so.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1446 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Agnico Eagle Mines Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Agnico Eagle’s future with the numbers by telling a story about its revenue, earnings and margins. This translates into a financial forecast and ultimately a fair value estimate that you can easily build and track on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share their perspectives, compare Fair Value to the current price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell, and have those Narratives dynamically updated as new news, earnings and guidance come in. For example, one Agnico Eagle Narrative might lean bullish and assume the stock is worth closer to $195 per share based on resilient gold prices, higher growth and stronger margins. A more cautious Narrative might see fair value nearer $66 if gold weakens and projects are delayed. By comparing each Narrative’s Fair Value to today’s market price, you can quickly see which story you believe and what that implies for your next move.

Do you think there's more to the story for Agnico Eagle Mines? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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