Oscar Health, Inc. (NYSE:OSCR) Reported Earnings Last Week And Analysts Are Already Upgrading Their Estimates

The investors in Oscar Health, Inc.'s (NYSE:OSCR) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 30% to US$17.68 in the week following its full-year results. Revenue hit US$5.9b in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$1.22 that was somewhat smaller than the analyst expected. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analyst is expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Oscar Health

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Oscar Health's single analyst is for revenues of US$8.39b in 2024. This reflects a major 43% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Oscar Health forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.04 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$7.26b and losses of US$0.17 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a definite improvement in business conditions, with a revenue upgrade expected to lead to profitability sooner than previously forecast.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analyst has lifted their price target 60% to US$16.00per share.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Oscar Health's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 43% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 63% over the past three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Oscar Health is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst now expect Oscar Health to become profitable next year, compared to previous expectations that it would report a loss. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Oscar Health going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Oscar Health that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.