Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE:KNSL) just released its third-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 11% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$498m, while EPS were US$6.09 beating analyst models by 25%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, Kinsale Capital Group's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.00b in 2026. This would be a meaningful 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$20.73, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.96b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$20.65 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Kinsale Capital Group

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$475. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Kinsale Capital Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$536 and the most bearish at US$400 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Kinsale Capital Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Kinsale Capital Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 8.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 28% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Kinsale Capital Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kinsale Capital Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Kinsale Capital Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Kinsale Capital Group's balance sheet, and whether we think Kinsale Capital Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.