Stock Analysis

Do Chubb's (NYSE:CB) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

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NYSE:CB
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Some have more dollars than sense, they say, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can easily find investors. And in their study titled Who Falls Prey to the Wolf of Wall Street?' Leuz et. al. found that it is 'quite common' for investors to lose money by buying into 'pump and dump' schemes.

If, on the other hand, you like companies that have revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in Chubb (NYSE:CB). Even if the shares are fully valued today, most capitalists would recognize its profits as the demonstration of steady value generation. In comparison, loss making companies act like a sponge for capital - but unlike such a sponge they do not always produce something when squeezed.

See our latest analysis for Chubb

How Fast Is Chubb Growing?

The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term, so share price follows earnings per share (EPS) eventually. That makes EPS growth an attractive quality for any company. Impressively, Chubb has grown EPS by 23% per year, compound, in the last three years. If the company can sustain that sort of growth, we'd expect shareholders to come away winners.

I like to take a look at earnings before interest and (EBIT) tax margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. Not all of Chubb's revenue this year is revenue from operations, so keep in mind the revenue and margin numbers I've used might not be the best representation of the underlying business. The good news is that Chubb is growing revenues, and EBIT margins improved by 12.0 percentage points to 19%, over the last year. Ticking those two boxes is a good sign of growth, in my book.

The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

earnings-and-revenue-history
NYSE:CB Earnings and Revenue History November 25th 2021

In investing, as in life, the future matters more than the past. So why not check out this free interactive visualization of Chubb's forecast profits?

Are Chubb Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Since Chubb has a market capitalization of US$82b, we wouldn't expect insiders to hold a large percentage of shares. But we do take comfort from the fact that they are investors in the company. Notably, they have an enormous stake in the company, worth US$432m. This suggests to me that leadership will be very mindful of shareholders' interests when making decisions!

Does Chubb Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

For growth investors like me, Chubb's raw rate of earnings growth is a beacon in the night. I think that EPS growth is something to boast of, and it doesn't surprise me that insiders are holding on to a considerable chunk of shares. So this is very likely the kind of business that I like to spend time researching, with a view to discerning its true value. It's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Chubb (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you can do well (sometimes) buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares. But as a growth investor I always like to check out companies that do have those features. You can access a free list of them here.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

What are the risks and opportunities for Chubb?

Chubb Limited provides insurance and reinsurance products worldwide.

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Rewards

  • Trading at 27.8% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings are forecast to grow 10.94% per year

Risks

  • Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

  • Profit margins (14.7%) are lower than last year (21.9%)

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