Arch Capital Group (ACGL): Revisiting Valuation After Recent 6% Share Price Rebound

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) has quietly outperformed over the past month, climbing about 6% even as recent annual revenue and net income growth cooled. That mix of steady returns and slower earnings momentum sets up an interesting valuation check.

See our latest analysis for Arch Capital Group.

Zooming out, Arch Capital Group’s roughly 5.6% 1 month share price return contrasts with a softer 1 year total shareholder return of about negative 6 percent, suggesting recent momentum is rebuilding after a cooler stretch.

If Arch’s steady climb has you thinking about what else could be gaining traction, it might be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other under the radar compounders.

With analysts seeing upside to the current share price but earnings growth slowing, the key question now is whether Arch Capital is quietly mispriced value, or if the market is already baking in its next leg of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 14.1% Undervalued

Against Arch Capital Group’s last close of $92.39, the most followed narrative sees fair value materially higher, framing today’s price as a discount.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $108.312 for Arch Capital Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $125.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $93.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what really powers that valuation gap? The narrative leans on resilient margins, surprisingly conservative revenue paths, and a future earnings multiple that challenges sector norms. Curious which assumptions matter most?

Result: Fair Value of $107.56 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on catastrophe losses staying contained and premium growth holding up, particularly in Mortgage and Reinsurance, where competition and macro risks loom.

Find out about the key risks to this Arch Capital Group narrative.

Build Your Own Arch Capital Group Narrative

If you see the story differently, or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can assemble a personalized view in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Arch Capital Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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