Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Summer Infant, Inc. (NASDAQ:SUMR) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Summer Infant
How Much Debt Does Summer Infant Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of October 2021, Summer Infant had US$35.5m of debt, up from US$32.8m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.
How Strong Is Summer Infant's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Summer Infant had liabilities of US$38.5m due within a year, and liabilities of US$46.2m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$389.0k as well as receivables valued at US$34.4m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$49.9m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the US$19.1m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Summer Infant would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Weak interest cover of 0.85 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 9.3 hit our confidence in Summer Infant like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, Summer Infant saw its EBIT tank 80% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Summer Infant will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last two years, Summer Infant actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
To be frank both Summer Infant's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Summer Infant has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Summer Infant (including 1 which can't be ignored) .
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqCM:SUMR
Summer Infant
Summer Infant, Inc., an infant and juvenile products company, designs, markets, and distributes branded juvenile safety and convenience products.
Slightly overvalued with weak fundamentals.