U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 21%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (NYSE:USPH) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.8% to US$81.02 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$664m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 21% to hit US$1.84 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for U.S. Physical Therapy

Following the latest results, U.S. Physical Therapy's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$742.2m in 2025. This would be a solid 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 29% to US$2.37. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$735.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.82 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$111, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic U.S. Physical Therapy analyst has a price target of US$120 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$98.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting U.S. Physical Therapy's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that U.S. Physical Therapy is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for U.S. Physical Therapy. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for U.S. Physical Therapy going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for U.S. Physical Therapy you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.