U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.

NYSE:USPH Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.5b

U.S. Physical Therapy Valuation

Is USPH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of USPH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: USPH ($97.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($171.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: USPH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for USPH?

Key metric: As USPH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for USPH. This is calculated by dividing USPH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is USPH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio104.7x
EarningsUS$14.10m
Market CapUS$1.46b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does USPH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for USPH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21x
NHC National HealthCare
15.7xn/aUS$1.9b
ARDT Ardent Health Partners
24.6x38.5%US$2.3b
CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent
16.1x4.0%US$2.7b
PACS PACS Group
27.7x47.6%US$2.6b
USPH U.S. Physical Therapy
104.7x29.4%US$1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: USPH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (104.7x) compared to the peer average (21x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does USPH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Healthcare Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NEUE NeueHealth
1.5xn/aUS$41.80m
IDXG Interpace Biosciences
2.4xn/aUS$11.72m
FZMD Fuse Medical
1.1xn/aUS$5.63m
No more companies available in this PE range
USPH 104.7xIndustry Avg. 24.6xNo. of Companies11PE01632486480+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: USPH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (104.7x) compared to the US Healthcare industry average (25.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is USPH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

USPH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio104.7x
Fair PE Ratio33.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: USPH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (104.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst USPH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$97.83
US$107.40
+9.8%
6.2%US$117.00US$100.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$81.38
US$104.80
+28.8%
8.7%US$117.00US$90.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$82.99
US$114.10
+37.5%
4.7%US$122.50US$108.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$85.60
US$114.10
+33.3%
4.7%US$122.50US$108.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$96.43
US$120.50
+25.0%
1.6%US$122.50US$117.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$91.31
US$120.50
+32.0%
1.6%US$122.50US$117.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$102.57
US$120.50
+17.5%
1.6%US$122.50US$117.00n/a5
May ’25US$101.56
US$119.30
+17.5%
2.4%US$122.50US$115.00n/a5
Apr ’25US$112.15
US$119.30
+6.4%
2.4%US$122.50US$115.00n/a5
Mar ’25US$104.62
US$115.70
+10.6%
7.6%US$122.50US$99.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$94.61
US$108.40
+14.6%
6.4%US$120.00US$99.00n/a5
Jan ’25US$93.14
US$106.60
+14.5%
4.1%US$111.00US$99.00n/a5
Dec ’24US$87.74
US$105.60
+20.4%
4.8%US$111.00US$99.00n/a5
Nov ’24US$82.88
US$121.40
+46.5%
6.1%US$130.00US$108.00US$81.385
Oct ’24US$91.73
US$121.40
+32.3%
6.1%US$130.00US$108.00US$82.995
Sep ’24US$100.25
US$131.75
+31.4%
7.7%US$145.00US$120.00US$85.604
Aug ’24US$118.79
US$125.33
+5.5%
11.1%US$145.00US$115.00US$96.433
Jul ’24US$121.39
US$120.33
-0.9%
3.1%US$125.00US$116.00US$91.313
Jun ’24US$102.98
US$118.67
+15.2%
3.8%US$125.00US$115.00US$102.573
May ’24US$106.77
US$110.00
+3.0%
3.7%US$115.00US$105.00US$101.563
Apr ’24US$97.91
US$110.00
+12.3%
3.7%US$115.00US$105.00US$112.153
Mar ’24US$101.89
US$110.00
+8.0%
3.7%US$115.00US$105.00US$104.623
Feb ’24US$99.95
US$102.33
+2.4%
3.2%US$107.00US$100.00US$94.613
Jan ’24US$81.03
US$102.33
+26.3%
3.2%US$107.00US$100.00US$93.143
Dec ’23US$88.70
US$105.25
+18.7%
5.5%US$114.00US$100.00US$87.744
Nov ’23US$91.18
US$105.25
+15.4%
5.5%US$114.00US$100.00US$82.884

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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