Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ACHC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.8b

Acadia Healthcare Company Valuation

Is ACHC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ACHC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ACHC ($39.64) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($6.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ACHC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ACHC?

Key metric: As ACHC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ACHC. This is calculated by dividing ACHC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ACHC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.1x
EarningsUS$280.73m
Market CapUS$3.76b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ACHC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ACHC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.5x
CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent
15.1x4.2%US$2.7b
SEM Select Medical Holdings
9.3x-19.3%US$2.5b
ARDT Ardent Health Partners
26x38.8%US$2.4b
PACS PACS Group
23.5x47.6%US$2.4b
ACHC Acadia Healthcare Company
13.1x10.6%US$3.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ACHC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the peer average (18.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ACHC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Healthcare Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NEUE NeueHealth
1.2xn/aUS$38.38m
IDXG Interpace Biosciences
2.5xn/aUS$12.19m
FZMD Fuse Medical
2.2xn/aUS$8.67m
ETAO.F ETAO International
n/an/aUS$51.00
No more companies available in this PE range
ACHC 13.1xIndustry Avg. 21.9xNo. of Companies11PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ACHC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the US Healthcare industry average (22.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ACHC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ACHC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.1x
Fair PE Ratio27.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ACHC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ACHC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$39.64
US$60.83
+53.5%
19.1%US$80.00US$43.00n/a12
Dec ’25US$40.63
US$60.17
+48.1%
18.7%US$80.00US$43.00n/a12
Nov ’25US$42.02
US$69.00
+64.2%
20.8%US$94.00US$45.00n/a12
Oct ’25US$62.41
US$88.75
+42.2%
10.1%US$105.00US$75.00n/a12
Sep ’25US$81.93
US$89.33
+9.0%
9.3%US$105.00US$75.00n/a12
Aug ’25US$74.09
US$88.33
+19.2%
11.4%US$105.00US$70.00n/a12
Jul ’25US$67.01
US$88.67
+32.3%
11.3%US$105.00US$70.00n/a12
Jun ’25US$68.89
US$88.67
+28.7%
11.3%US$105.00US$70.00n/a12
May ’25US$72.99
US$95.85
+31.3%
9.8%US$105.00US$70.00n/a13
Apr ’25US$76.07
US$95.58
+25.7%
10.1%US$105.00US$70.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$83.99
US$94.55
+12.6%
11.5%US$105.00US$70.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$81.77
US$89.55
+9.5%
11.1%US$105.00US$68.00n/a11
Jan ’25US$77.76
US$88.55
+13.9%
11.5%US$105.00US$68.00n/a11
Dec ’24US$73.86
US$88.55
+19.9%
11.5%US$105.00US$68.00US$40.6311
Nov ’24US$73.47
US$90.09
+22.6%
11.7%US$105.00US$68.00US$42.0211
Oct ’24US$70.31
US$90.55
+28.8%
11.3%US$105.00US$68.00US$62.4111
Sep ’24US$77.50
US$90.75
+17.1%
11.0%US$105.00US$68.00US$81.9312
Aug ’24US$78.48
US$90.58
+15.4%
11.0%US$105.00US$68.00US$74.0912
Jul ’24US$79.64
US$89.75
+12.7%
12.0%US$105.00US$63.00US$67.0112
Jun ’24US$70.87
US$89.75
+26.6%
12.0%US$105.00US$63.00US$68.8912
May ’24US$70.51
US$89.75
+27.3%
12.0%US$105.00US$63.00US$72.9912
Apr ’24US$72.25
US$92.25
+27.7%
8.8%US$105.00US$75.00US$76.0712
Mar ’24US$74.31
US$93.42
+25.7%
6.7%US$105.00US$82.00US$83.9912
Feb ’24US$84.06
US$94.67
+12.6%
6.7%US$105.00US$82.00US$81.7712
Jan ’24US$82.32
US$94.33
+14.6%
7.0%US$105.00US$82.00US$77.7612
Dec ’23US$87.62
US$92.92
+6.0%
8.0%US$105.00US$80.00US$73.8612

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/17 06:02
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Matthew GillmorBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Sarah JamesBarclays