Does Hims & Hers Stock Still Make Sense After FDA Rebuke on Super Bowl Ad?

If you’re keeping tabs on Hims & Hers Health stock, you’re not alone. Plenty of investors are weighing their next moves after a whirlwind run that’s made it nearly impossible to ignore. In just the past year, shares have rocketed up 216.1%. The story gets even more notable over the long term, with the stock up 789.7% over three years. Most recently, Hims & Hers jumped 6.5% in the past week and 10.6% over the last month. Year-to-date figures show a rise of 101.9%. In short, anyone who held on for the ride knows it’s been anything but dull.

This kind of momentum naturally raises eyebrows, especially when it’s unfolding against a backdrop of regulatory headlines. News like the FDA chief’s public criticism of Hims & Hers’ Super Bowl ad for crossing the line on drug promotion, and a recent FTC probe into their cancellation policies, can stir up short-term turbulence. Despite that, the long-term trend is clear: investors are still betting big on the company’s growth potential, even amid government scrutiny and calls for tighter oversight.

Of course, price action is only half the story. When we dig into valuation, a key piece of the decision-making puzzle, the numbers say something different. On a 6-point undervaluation check, Hims & Hers gets a score of 1. That means the company is only considered undervalued by one metric, a detail that deserves a closer look. Is the market overlooking hidden value, or is it pricing in all the future growth and then some?

Let’s break down how these different valuation approaches stack up, and why there might be an even smarter way to think about the real worth of Hims & Hers Health.

Hims & Hers Health scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Hims & Hers Health Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis estimates a company’s value by projecting its expected future cash flows and then discounting them back to their present value. This method provides a snapshot of what Hims & Hers Health might be worth today based on how much cash it is likely to generate in the years ahead.

For Hims & Hers Health, the latest trailing twelve months Free Cash Flow stands at $159 million. Analysts give projections for the next five years, after which estimates are extrapolated further. By 2029, Free Cash Flow is forecast to reach $402.1 million, with projections continuing to rise gradually over the next decade, all expressed in US dollars. In this DCF model, Simply Wall St uses a “2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity” approach, accounting for both short-term analyst inputs and longer term, modestly growing cash flows.

According to this analysis, the fair intrinsic value per share comes out to $48.55. However, the calculation also signals that the current share price is roughly 4.8% above this value, meaning the stock is considered just over fairly valued on this metric.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Hims & Hers Health.

Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day (check out Hims & Hers Health's valuation analysis). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.

Approach 2: Hims & Hers Health Price vs Earnings

When analyzing profitable companies, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is often the go-to valuation tool. That’s because it reflects how much investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of future earnings. For firms with consistent profits, the PE ratio helps level the playing field between high-growth disruptors and more established firms.

The “normal” or “fair” PE ratio for any company is shaped by expectations for growth and the unique risks it faces. Companies expected to deliver strong future earnings growth and lower risks tend to command higher PE multiples. By contrast, those in slower-growth scenarios or facing more uncertainty typically trade at lower ratios.

Hims & Hers Health currently trades at a PE ratio of 59.4x. For context, the average PE ratio within the broader Healthcare industry is 21.0x, and peers come in at an average of 42.8x. This suggests the market is optimistic about the company’s growth prospects relative to its sector and competitors.

But context matters. Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” builds in the specifics that really drive value, such as historical and forecast earnings growth, profit margins, industry dynamics, market size, and company-specific risks. In this analysis, Hims & Hers’ Fair Ratio clocks in at 60.2x, nearly matching its actual PE.

Comparing to this Fair Ratio gives a better sense of value than just looking at industry or peer averages, as it is custom-fitted to the company’s real outlook and risk profile. With the market PE almost identical to the Fair Ratio, there is little to suggest the stock is meaningfully over or undervalued on this metric.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Hims & Hers Health Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let’s introduce you to Narratives, a dynamic, user-friendly approach that goes beyond ratios and models to reveal what really drives a company’s value. A Narrative is your story of how you see Hims & Hers Health’s future, connecting its unique business model, strategic moves, and risks directly to detailed revenue, margin, and fair value projections. This approach links the company’s “story” to actual financial forecasts, then distills it to a clear, actionable fair value. In this way, you are grounding your investment decisions in your own convictions, not just industry averages.

Narratives are available on Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors to share perspectives and challenge assumptions. They help you confidently decide when to buy or sell by comparing your own Fair Value estimate, based on your assumptions, to the current share price. Narratives are updated in real time as new news or earnings data arrives, so your view is always relevant in a fast-moving market.

For example, some investors see Hims & Hers Health as a next-generation healthcare platform with long-term fair values as high as $114 per share, while others caution that the real fair value could be closer to $28, reflecting regulatory and execution risks. By exploring Narratives, you can choose the outlook that fits your own research and risk tolerance.

For Hims & Hers Health, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Hims & Hers Health Narratives:

🐂 Hims & Hers Health Bull Case

Fair value: $114   |   Undervalued by: -55.35%   |   Revenue growth rate: 22%

• Hims is building a vertically integrated, personalized healthcare platform across diagnostics, treatment, and prevention, positioning itself as infrastructure for the future of health.
• Strong growth, high retention, expanding margins, and zero debt underpin a rare opportunity for venture-style returns in public markets.
• Regulatory risks and execution complexity exist, but diversified offerings and strategic partnerships provide resilience against market and regulatory shocks.

🐻 Hims & Hers Health Bear Case

Fair value: $49.46   |   Overvalued by: 2.89%   |   Revenue growth rate: 18.3%

• Growth is driven by diversification across new health categories, innovative tech adoption, and international expansion; however, heavy reliance on certain segments introduces revenue volatility and margin risks.
• Industry trends and strong user retention favor long-term recurring revenue and earnings stability, supported by new personalized offerings and efficiency initiatives.
• Analyst consensus sees the stock as fairly priced, with significant risks tied to regulatory uncertainties, rising operating expenses, and possible headwinds as the business scales globally.

Do you think there's more to the story for Hims & Hers Health? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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