How Historic US Alcohol Consumption Lows May Reshape Molson Coors (TAP) Investors’ Outlook

• In late August 2025, reports showed that alcohol consumption in the US dropped to its lowest level since 1939, putting significant pressure on legacy brewers like Molson Coors Beverage.
• This development resulted in unanimous downgrades to earnings expectations from analysts, reflecting widespread concerns about Molson Coors' current business outlook and long-term strategy.
• We'll assess how the historic drop in US alcohol consumption is now reshaping Molson Coors' investment narrative and future prospects.

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Molson Coors Beverage Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Molson Coors shareholder today, you need to believe in the company’s ability to adapt and capture value from changing beverage trends, while managing through a difficult period for US brewers. The historic decline in alcohol consumption has directly intensified the pressure on Molson Coors’ most important near-term catalyst, gaining ground in high-growth, non-beer and above-premium segments, while also amplifying the principal risk of sustained US beer volume declines and operating deleverage.

Among recent announcements, Molson Coors’ lowered 2025 guidance for net sales and earnings stands out as especially relevant, confirming how worsening consumption trends are being rapidly reflected in company forecasts. This adjustment sets a challenging starting point for any turnaround attempts and places even more scrutiny on the business’s ability to offset core declines with innovation and international growth.

By contrast, what matters most for investors to watch is how prolonged US consumption weakness could weigh on both margins and future growth...

Read the full narrative on Molson Coors Beverage (it's free!)

Molson Coors Beverage's outlook anticipates $11.5 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on a forecast annual revenue decline of 0.6% and a $0.1 billion increase in earnings from the current $1.0 billion.

Uncover how Molson Coors Beverage's forecasts yield a $54.43 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community see fair value for Molson Coors ranging from US$45.03 to US$157.55 per share. With such wide-ranging views, consider how ongoing pressures from weaker beer volumes could shape company performance in the coming quarters, explore this range of perspectives for deeper insight.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Molson Coors Beverage - why the stock might be worth 11% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Molson Coors Beverage Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Molson Coors Beverage research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Molson Coors Beverage research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Molson Coors Beverage's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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