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Here's Why Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Conagra Brands
How Much Debt Does Conagra Brands Carry?
As you can see below, Conagra Brands had US$8.33b of debt at November 2022, down from US$8.98b a year prior. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
How Strong Is Conagra Brands' Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Conagra Brands had liabilities of US$3.72b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$9.95b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$39.7m and US$910.5m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$12.7b.
This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of US$17.4b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Conagra Brands's debt is 3.9 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.8 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. We saw Conagra Brands grow its EBIT by 8.8% in the last twelve months. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Conagra Brands's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Conagra Brands recorded free cash flow worth 54% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
While Conagra Brands's level of total liabilities makes us cautious about it, its track record of managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, is no better. But its not so bad at growing its EBIT. We think that Conagra Brands's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with Conagra Brands (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
What are the risks and opportunities for Conagra Brands?
Conagra Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a consumer packaged goods food company in North America.
Rewards
Trading at 63.4% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 17.36% per year
Risks
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow
Large one-off items impacting financial results
Further research on
Conagra Brands
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:CAG
Conagra Brands
Conagra Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a consumer packaged goods food company in North America.
Undervalued average dividend payer.
