Here's Why We Think Hostess Brands (NASDAQ:TWNK) Is Well Worth Watching

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks' without any revenue, let alone profit. But the reality is that when a company loses money each year, for long enough, its investors will usually take their share of those losses. A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.

If this kind of company isn't your style, you like companies that generate revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in Hostess Brands (NASDAQ:TWNK). Even if this company is fairly valued by the market, investors would agree that generating consistent profits will continue to provide Hostess Brands with the means to add long-term value to shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Hostess Brands

Hostess Brands' Earnings Per Share Are Growing

If a company can keep growing earnings per share (EPS) long enough, its share price should eventually follow. That means EPS growth is considered a real positive by most successful long-term investors. It certainly is nice to see that Hostess Brands has managed to grow EPS by 22% per year over three years. As a general rule, we'd say that if a company can keep up that sort of growth, shareholders will be beaming.

Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. On the one hand, Hostess Brands' EBIT margins fell over the last year, but on the other hand, revenue grew. So it seems the future may hold further growth, especially if EBIT margins can remain steady.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

Fortunately, we've got access to analyst forecasts of Hostess Brands' future profits. You can do your own forecasts without looking, or you can take a peek at what the professionals are predicting.

Are Hostess Brands Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

It's pleasing to see company leaders with putting their money on the line, so to speak, because it increases alignment of incentives between the people running the business, and its true owners. So it is good to see that Hostess Brands insiders have a significant amount of capital invested in the stock. To be specific, they have US$14m worth of shares. That's a lot of money, and no small incentive to work hard. While their ownership only accounts for 0.5%, this is still a considerable amount at stake to encourage the business to maintain a strategy that will deliver value to shareholders.

It's good to see that insiders are invested in the company, but are remuneration levels reasonable? A brief analysis of the CEO compensation suggests they are. For companies with market capitalisations between US$2.0b and US$6.4b, like Hostess Brands, the median CEO pay is around US$6.9m.

Hostess Brands offered total compensation worth US$5.4m to its CEO in the year to December 2021. That is actually below the median for CEO's of similarly sized companies. CEO remuneration levels are not the most important metric for investors, but when the pay is modest, that does support enhanced alignment between the CEO and the ordinary shareholders. Generally, arguments can be made that reasonable pay levels attest to good decision-making.

Does Hostess Brands Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

You can't deny that Hostess Brands has grown its earnings per share at a very impressive rate. That's attractive. If you need more convincing beyond that EPS growth rate, don't forget about the reasonable remuneration and the high insider ownership. This may only be a fast rundown, but the key takeaway is that Hostess Brands is worth keeping an eye on. You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Hostess Brands you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

The beauty of investing is that you can invest in almost any company you want. But if you prefer to focus on stocks that have demonstrated insider buying, here is a list of companies with insider buying in the last three months.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.