Hostess Brands, Inc.

NasdaqCM:TWNK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.4b

Hostess Brands Valuation

Is TWNK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TWNK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TWNK ($33.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($42.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TWNK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TWNK?

Key metric: As TWNK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TWNK. This is calculated by dividing TWNK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TWNK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio35x
EarningsUS$126.48m
Market CapUS$4.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TWNK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TWNK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.8x
FLO Flowers Foods
19.6x6.5%US$4.7b
CALM Cal-Maine Foods
11x-44.9%US$4.7b
SMPL Simply Good Foods
28.1x12.3%US$3.9b
LANC Lancaster Colony
32.3x9.9%US$5.1b
TWNK Hostess Brands
35x14.4%US$4.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TWNK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x) compared to the peer average (24.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TWNK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GCEH Global Clean Energy Holdings
0.3xn/aUS$45.16m
SEED Origin Agritech
1.9xn/aUS$15.46m
FAMI Farmmi
1.8xn/aUS$2.89m
IDBH.F Industrias Bachoco. de
0.0002xn/aUS$59.94k
TWNK 35.0xIndustry Avg. 19.6xNo. of Companies6PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TWNK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x) compared to the US Food industry average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TWNK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TWNK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio35x
Fair PE Ratio20.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TWNK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TWNK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Nov ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Oct ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Sep ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Aug ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Jul ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Jun ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
May ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Apr ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Mar ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Feb ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Jan ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Dec ’24n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Nov ’24US$33.34
US$33.39
+0.1%
5.7%US$34.25US$28.00n/a9
Oct ’24US$33.31
US$33.17
-0.4%
5.8%US$34.25US$28.00n/a9
Sep ’24US$28.33
US$28.78
+1.6%
9.2%US$32.00US$24.00n/a9
Aug ’24US$23.64
US$29.10
+23.1%
7.9%US$32.00US$25.00n/a10
Jul ’24US$25.32
US$29.10
+14.9%
8.2%US$32.00US$25.00n/a10
Jun ’24US$25.19
US$29.20
+15.9%
8.6%US$33.00US$25.00n/a10
May ’24US$26.24
US$28.70
+9.4%
10.3%US$32.00US$23.00n/a10
Apr ’24US$24.88
US$28.45
+14.4%
9.9%US$32.00US$23.00n/a11
Mar ’24US$24.50
US$28.90
+18.0%
8.5%US$32.00US$25.00n/a10
Feb ’24US$23.30
US$29.20
+25.3%
6.8%US$32.00US$25.00n/a10
Jan ’24US$22.44
US$28.95
+29.0%
7.5%US$32.00US$25.00n/a11
Dec ’23US$25.94
US$29.05
+12.0%
6.9%US$32.00US$25.50n/a11
Nov ’23US$25.67
US$26.95
+5.0%
6.3%US$30.00US$23.50US$33.3411

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Arca Continental. de

Mex$299.7b

Produces, distributes, and sells soft drinks in Mexico, Peru, the United States, Argentina, and Ecuador.

EMBV.F

Mex$8.56

7D

4.5%

1Y

-14.4%

Nestlé

CHF 195.4b

Operates as a food and beverage company.

NSRG.F

CHF 85.19

7D

-2.4%

1Y

-25.2%

B&G Foods

US$517.7m

Manufactures, sells, and distributes a portfolio of shelf-stable and frozen foods, and household products in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico.

BGS

US$6.54

7D

5.3%

1Y

-30.4%