Hostess Brands, Inc.

NasdaqCM:TWNK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.4b

Hostess Brands Valuation

Is TWNK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TWNK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TWNK ($33.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($42.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TWNK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TWNK?

Key metric: As TWNK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TWNK. This is calculated by dividing TWNK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TWNK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio35x
EarningsUS$126.48m
Market CapUS$4.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TWNK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TWNK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.1x
FLO Flowers Foods
18x6.5%US$4.3b
SMPL Simply Good Foods
27.8x12.4%US$3.9b
LANC Lancaster Colony
30.9x9.9%US$4.9b
CALM Cal-Maine Foods
11.8x-44.9%US$5.0b
TWNK Hostess Brands
35x14.4%US$4.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TWNK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x) compared to the peer average (24.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TWNK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GCEH Global Clean Energy Holdings
0.6xn/aUS$124.95m
ORIS Oriental Rise Holdings
2.9xn/aUS$33.24m
SEED Origin Agritech
1.8xn/aUS$14.03m
IDBH.F Industrias Bachoco. de
0.02xn/aUS$9.65m
TWNK 35.0xIndustry Avg. 20.3xNo. of Companies7PE01224364860+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TWNK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x) compared to the US Food industry average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TWNK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TWNK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio35x
Fair PE Ratio20.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TWNK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TWNK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Dec ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Nov ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Oct ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Sep ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Aug ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Jul ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Jun ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
May ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Apr ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Mar ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Feb ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Jan ’25n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Dec ’24n/a
US$32.56
0%
8.1%US$34.25US$28.00n/a4
Nov ’24US$33.34
US$33.39
+0.1%
5.7%US$34.25US$28.00n/a9
Oct ’24US$33.31
US$33.17
-0.4%
5.8%US$34.25US$28.00n/a9
Sep ’24US$28.33
US$28.78
+1.6%
9.2%US$32.00US$24.00n/a9
Aug ’24US$23.64
US$29.10
+23.1%
7.9%US$32.00US$25.00n/a10
Jul ’24US$25.32
US$29.10
+14.9%
8.2%US$32.00US$25.00n/a10
Jun ’24US$25.19
US$29.20
+15.9%
8.6%US$33.00US$25.00n/a10
May ’24US$26.24
US$28.70
+9.4%
10.3%US$32.00US$23.00n/a10
Apr ’24US$24.88
US$28.45
+14.4%
9.9%US$32.00US$23.00n/a11
Mar ’24US$24.50
US$28.90
+18.0%
8.5%US$32.00US$25.00n/a10
Feb ’24US$23.30
US$29.20
+25.3%
6.8%US$32.00US$25.00n/a10
Jan ’24US$22.44
US$28.95
+29.0%
7.5%US$32.00US$25.00n/a11
Dec ’23US$25.94
US$29.05
+12.0%
6.9%US$32.00US$25.50n/a11

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2023/11/10 01:16
End of Day Share Price 2023/11/06 00:00
Earnings2023/09/30
Annual Earnings2022/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Hostess Brands, Inc. is covered by 20 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Donald McLeeBerenberg
Wendy NicholsonCitigroup Inc
Michael GalloCL King & Associates, Inc.