The Simply Good Foods Company

NasdaqCM:SMPL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.9b

Simply Good Foods Valuation

Is SMPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SMPL ($38.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMPL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMPL?

Key metric: As SMPL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SMPL. This is calculated by dividing SMPL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SMPL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio27.9x
EarningsUS$139.31m
Market CapUS$3.89b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SMPL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SMPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.5x
FLO Flowers Foods
18x6.5%US$4.3b
LANC Lancaster Colony
30x9.9%US$4.8b
TWNK Hostess Brands
35x14.4%US$4.4b
JJSF J&J Snack Foods
35x13.7%US$3.0b
SMPL Simply Good Foods
27.9x12.4%US$3.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SMPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x) compared to the peer average (27.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SMPL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GCEH Global Clean Energy Holdings
0.5xn/aUS$80.29m
ORIS Oriental Rise Holdings
2.7xn/aUS$33.24m
SEED Origin Agritech
1.7xn/aUS$13.65m
IDBH.F Industrias Bachoco. de
0.02xn/aUS$9.65m
SMPL 27.9xIndustry Avg. 20.0xNo. of Companies8PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SMPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x) compared to the US Food industry average (20x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMPL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMPL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio27.9x
Fair PE Ratio21.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SMPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SMPL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$38.72
US$40.20
+3.8%
11.5%US$48.00US$33.00n/a10
Dec ’25US$39.79
US$38.90
-2.2%
9.2%US$44.00US$33.00n/a10
Nov ’25US$34.10
US$39.20
+15.0%
10.2%US$46.00US$33.00n/a10
Oct ’25US$34.85
US$40.00
+14.8%
12.3%US$49.00US$33.00n/a10
Sep ’25US$31.59
US$39.33
+24.5%
12.1%US$49.00US$33.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$34.03
US$39.50
+16.1%
11.5%US$49.00US$33.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$35.77
US$40.00
+11.8%
10.1%US$49.00US$34.00n/a10
Jun ’25US$38.49
US$40.00
+3.9%
11.1%US$49.00US$34.00n/a12
May ’25US$36.75
US$40.35
+9.8%
11.0%US$49.00US$34.00n/a13
Apr ’25US$34.15
US$43.73
+28.0%
11.2%US$50.00US$36.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$35.15
US$45.73
+30.1%
8.5%US$50.00US$36.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$37.91
US$46.17
+21.8%
6.4%US$50.00US$40.00n/a12
Jan ’25US$39.60
US$42.58
+7.5%
7.1%US$49.00US$37.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$39.08
US$42.64
+9.1%
7.4%US$49.00US$37.00US$39.7911
Nov ’24US$36.42
US$42.55
+16.8%
7.8%US$49.00US$36.00US$34.1011
Oct ’24US$34.52
US$42.91
+24.3%
6.2%US$49.00US$40.00US$34.8511
Sep ’24US$36.18
US$42.82
+18.3%
7.0%US$49.00US$37.00US$31.5911
Aug ’24US$38.88
US$42.83
+10.2%
6.7%US$49.00US$37.00US$34.0312
Jul ’24US$36.59
US$42.58
+16.4%
8.1%US$49.00US$34.00US$35.7712
Jun ’24US$35.79
US$42.46
+18.6%
8.0%US$48.00US$34.00US$38.4913
May ’24US$36.81
US$42.36
+15.1%
7.8%US$48.00US$34.00US$36.7514
Apr ’24US$39.77
US$42.21
+6.1%
7.7%US$46.00US$34.00US$34.1514
Mar ’24US$37.30
US$41.73
+11.9%
7.7%US$46.00US$34.00US$35.1515
Feb ’24US$36.46
US$41.73
+14.5%
7.7%US$46.00US$34.00US$37.9115
Jan ’24US$38.03
US$42.47
+11.7%
9.2%US$50.00US$34.50US$39.6016
Dec ’23US$39.42
US$41.96
+6.5%
9.6%US$50.00US$34.50US$39.0814

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 02:45
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/08/31
Annual Earnings2024/08/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The Simply Good Foods Company is covered by 28 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Adam MizrahiBerenberg
Eric LarsonBuckingham Research Group Inc.