Lancaster Colony Corporation

NasdaqGS:LANC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.0b

Lancaster Colony Valuation

Is LANC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LANC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LANC ($180.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($505.46)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LANC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LANC?

Key metric: As LANC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LANC. This is calculated by dividing LANC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LANC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.2x
EarningsUS$158.96m
Market CapUS$4.98b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LANC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LANC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23x
FLO Flowers Foods
19.2x6.5%US$4.5b
TWNK Hostess Brands
35x14.4%US$4.4b
SMPL Simply Good Foods
27.2x12.3%US$3.7b
CALM Cal-Maine Foods
10.8x-44.9%US$4.4b
LANC Lancaster Colony
31.2x9.9%US$5.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LANC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.2x) compared to the peer average (19.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LANC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GCEH Global Clean Energy Holdings
2.1xn/aUS$45.02m
SEED Origin Agritech
1.8xn/aUS$14.54m
FAMI Farmmi
1.8xn/aUS$2.81m
IDBH.F Industrias Bachoco. de
0.0002xn/aUS$59.94k
LANC 31.2xIndustry Avg. 18.9xNo. of Companies8PE01020304050+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LANC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.2x) compared to the US Food industry average (18.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LANC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LANC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.2x
Fair PE Ratio21.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LANC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LANC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$180.04
US$196.40
+9.1%
8.2%US$227.00US$183.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$180.47
US$196.40
+8.8%
8.2%US$227.00US$183.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$177.25
US$199.40
+12.5%
10.0%US$232.00US$176.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$170.76
US$199.80
+17.0%
9.8%US$232.00US$176.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$190.67
US$209.80
+10.0%
6.4%US$236.00US$198.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$188.57
US$212.60
+12.7%
6.3%US$236.00US$198.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$185.50
US$214.60
+15.7%
5.5%US$236.00US$203.00n/a5
May ’25US$191.43
US$212.15
+10.8%
5.6%US$236.00US$202.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$206.47
US$213.40
+3.4%
5.9%US$236.00US$202.00n/a5
Mar ’25US$206.25
US$212.80
+3.2%
6.2%US$236.00US$200.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$204.04
US$196.33
-3.8%
6.2%US$209.00US$180.00n/a3
Jan ’25US$166.39
US$188.00
+13.0%
8.0%US$209.00US$166.00n/a5
Dec ’24US$167.19
US$191.00
+14.2%
8.4%US$209.00US$166.00n/a4
Nov ’24US$171.14
US$205.33
+20.0%
8.2%US$226.00US$185.00US$180.473
Oct ’24US$165.03
US$205.50
+24.5%
10.0%US$226.00US$185.00US$177.252
Sep ’24US$165.85
US$205.00
+23.6%
10.2%US$226.00US$184.00US$170.762
Aug ’24US$192.32
US$221.50
+15.2%
7.0%US$237.00US$206.00US$190.672
Jul ’24US$201.09
US$226.00
+12.4%
4.9%US$237.00US$215.00US$188.572
Jun ’24US$196.98
US$221.00
+12.2%
0.5%US$222.00US$220.00US$185.502
May ’24US$212.71
US$209.50
-1.5%
0.7%US$211.00US$208.00US$191.432
Apr ’24US$202.88
US$207.00
+2.0%
0.5%US$208.00US$206.00US$206.472
Mar ’24US$188.32
US$207.00
+9.9%
0.5%US$208.00US$206.00US$206.252
Feb ’24US$193.35
US$210.50
+8.9%
2.1%US$215.00US$206.00US$204.042
Jan ’24US$197.30
US$210.50
+6.7%
2.1%US$215.00US$206.00US$166.392
Dec ’23US$204.33
US$210.00
+2.8%
2.4%US$215.00US$205.00US$167.192
Nov ’23US$179.90
US$167.00
-7.2%
1.2%US$169.00US$165.00US$171.142

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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