Should Valero’s Refining Margin Rebound and 97% Utilization in Q3 2025 Require Action From Valero Energy (VLO) Investors?

• In October 2025, Valero Energy reported Q3 results that exceeded expectations, with US$32.17 billion in revenue and a sharp rebound in refining performance supported by 97% throughput utilization.
• The combination of higher refining margins per barrel and efficient use of its integrated refining network highlighted how operational execution can significantly influence the company’s earnings power.
• Next, we’ll examine how this refining margin rebound and high utilization rates could influence Valero Energy’s existing investment narrative.

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Valero Energy Investment Narrative Recap

To own Valero, you generally need to believe its large, integrated refining network can convert volatile fuel demand into steady cash generation. The Q3 margin rebound and 97% utilization strengthen the short term earnings catalyst, but do not remove policy and cost risks around renewables and potential asset impairments.

Against this backdrop, the company’s decision to maintain a US$1.13 quarterly dividend through 2025 stands out, reinforcing the role of shareholder returns as a key part of the story alongside refining performance.

Yet, despite the strong quarter, investors should be aware that potential policy shifts affecting RIN obligations and California’s LCFS could...

Read the full narrative on Valero Energy (it's free!)

Valero Energy’s narrative projects $116.8 billion in revenue and $3.8 billion in earnings by 2028. This assumes a 0.2% yearly revenue decline and a $3.0 billion earnings increase from $760.0 million today.

Uncover how Valero Energy's forecasts yield a $185.83 fair value, a 5% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Valero’s fair value between US$128 and about US$321, reflecting wide dispersion in expectations. You can weigh those views against the recent refining margin rebound and high utilization, which may influence how resilient the company’s earnings look under different market conditions.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Valero Energy - why the stock might be worth as much as 81% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Valero Energy Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Valero Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Valero Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Valero Energy's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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