Is It Too Late to Consider Par Pacific After Its 143% Surge in 2025?

• If you are wondering whether Par Pacific Holdings is still good value after its big run up, you are not alone, and that is exactly what we are going to unpack here.
• The stock has cooled off a bit lately, slipping about 7.0% over the last week and 1.1% over the past month, but it is still up 143.4% year to date and 146.8% over the last year.
• Those moves have come as investors refocus on refining and energy logistics names and reassess how companies like Par Pacific might benefit from changing fuel demand patterns and evolving regional supply chains. Broader sector rotation back into energy, along with ongoing strategic positioning in its core markets, has kept Par on many watchlists even after a strong multi year gain.
• Right now, Par Pacific scores a 5/6 valuation check score, which indicates the market may still be underestimating parts of the story, but that headline number does not explain how we got there. Next, we will break down the different valuation approaches behind that score, and then finish with a more intuitive way to think about what Par Pacific might be worth.

Par Pacific Holdings delivered 146.8% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Oil and Gas industry.

Approach 1: Par Pacific Holdings Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today to account for risk and the time value of money.

For Par Pacific Holdings, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow stands at about $224.1 Million. Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, analysts project near term cash flows, then Simply Wall St extrapolates further, with Free Cash Flow in 2026 estimated at roughly $262.5 Million and easing to about $145.9 Million by 2035 as growth normalizes.

When these projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the model produces an intrinsic value estimate of around $58.42 per share. Compared with the current market price, this implies the stock trades on roughly a 30.5% discount, indicating the market may not be fully pricing in its projected future cash generation.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Par Pacific Holdings is undervalued by 30.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 907 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Par Pacific Holdings.

Approach 2: Par Pacific Holdings Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Par Pacific Holdings, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to gauge whether investors are paying a reasonable price for each dollar of current earnings. In general, companies with stronger growth prospects and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE, while slower growing or riskier businesses tend to trade on lower multiples.

Par Pacific currently trades on a PE of about 8.7x, which is meaningfully below both the broader Oil and Gas industry average of roughly 13.3x and the average of a wider peer group near 22.3x. At first glance, that discount suggests the market is attaching relatively modest expectations to its future earnings power.

Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of around 9.1x for Par Pacific, a proprietary estimate of what the PE should be once factors such as earnings growth, profitability, industry, company size, and specific risks are taken into account. Because this Fair Ratio is tailored to the company, it gives a more nuanced signal than simple comparisons to peers or the industry. With the Fair Ratio sitting only slightly above the current 8.7x, the shares appear modestly undervalued rather than aggressively mispriced.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1448 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Par Pacific Holdings Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you tell the story behind your numbers by linking your view of a company’s future revenue, earnings, and margins to a clear financial forecast, a calculated fair value, and a concrete buy or sell decision based on how that fair value compares to today’s share price. All of this then updates dynamically as new news or earnings arrive. For Par Pacific Holdings for example, one investor might build a bullish Narrative around ongoing buybacks, resilient regional demand, and a fair value closer to the higher analyst target of about $39. Another might focus on refinery concentration, transition risks, and a fair value nearer the more cautious $23 estimate. This gives you an accessible way to see where your own view sits on that spectrum and act accordingly.

Do you think there's more to the story for Par Pacific Holdings? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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