Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:PARR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.2b

Par Pacific Holdings Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Par Pacific Holdings's revenue and earnings are forecast to decline at 0.6% and 2.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 0.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 6.6% in 3 years.

Key information

-2.4%

Earnings growth rate

0.58%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth7.0%
Revenue growth rate-0.6%
Future return on equity6.60%
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated27 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

PARR: Future Share Buybacks And Higher Oil Assumptions Will Support Upside

Analysts have lifted their price targets on Par Pacific Holdings, reflected in a new fair value estimate moving from $60.53 to $80.00 as they factor in updated views on revenue growth, profitability, discount rate assumptions, and a lower forward P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Par Pacific Holdings has leaned constructive, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets and, in some cases, upgrading their views as they reassess valuation, sector conditions, and company specific execution.

PARR: Crude Trade Flows And Capital Returns Will Shape Future Refining Margins

Analysts have lifted the implied fair value for Par Pacific Holdings from $47.13 to $70.13, citing broadly higher Street price targets, slightly lower discount rates, less steep expected revenue declines, firmer profit margin assumptions, and a more moderate future P/E outlook. Analyst Commentary Street research on Par Pacific Holdings has been active, with multiple price target revisions and rating changes feeding into the higher implied fair value.

Industry Analysts Just Made An Upgrade To Their Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Revenue Forecasts

Apr 10
Industry Analysts Just Made An Upgrade To Their Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Revenue Forecasts

PARR: Crude Trade Shifts Will Pressure Future Refining Margins

Par Pacific Holdings' updated analyst price targets have moved higher, with firms now generally looking for $48 to $58 per share as analysts factor in revised oil price assumptions, recent refining market commentary, and adjustments to earnings expectations reflected in the lower future P/E multiple and the improved profit margin outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Par Pacific highlights a mix of higher price targets and more cautious language around macro risks, crude flows, and refining cyclicality.

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR): The Regional Energy Arbiter – Capturing the Island & Rockies Premium

Vestra made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

PARR: Crude Trade Shifts And Maintenance Risks Will Pressure Future Margins

Narrative Update: Par Pacific Holdings Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Par Pacific Holdings up by $1 to $40, as recent price target revisions in the $48 to $57 range reflect updated views on refining conditions, regional maintenance impacts, and shifting crude trade flows. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Par Pacific cluster around higher price targets in the US$48 to US$57 range, but the commentary behind those numbers flags several risks that are worth keeping in mind.

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR): The Infrastructure Arbiter – Mastering Refining Margins in 2026.

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) is currently operating as a high-leverage play on specialized regional energy markets, trading at $49.69 as of the March 4, 2026, close. The stock experienced a significant 8.59% surge today, fueled by strong momentum following its late-February earnings release and a general rally in mid-cap energy names.

PARR: Crude Trade Flow Shifts And Refining Margins Will Shape Prospects

Narrative Update on Par Pacific Holdings Analysts have lifted their average price target for Par Pacific Holdings by about $1.63, toward a fair value of roughly $47.13, as they factor in recent price target revisions in the $48 to $57 range and refine assumptions around discount rates, revenue trends, margins, and future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary on Par Pacific Holdings highlights a mix of optimism around refining fundamentals and caution about external factors that could influence margins and crude sourcing over time.

PARR: Crude Trade Flow Shifts And Refining Fundamentals Will Shape Returns

Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Par Pacific Holdings from $47.38 to $45.50, in line with recent cuts to Street price targets as they consider updated views on crude trade flows, refining conditions, revenue trends and profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary around Par Pacific Holdings focuses less on company specific execution and more on how shifting crude trade flows and refining supply demand could feed into valuation over time.

Par Pacific: Structural Distillate Edge Driving Valuation Re-Rating

Feb 13

PARR: Crude Trade Shifts And Buybacks Will Shape Refining Margins And Returns

Analysts have reduced their average price target on Par Pacific Holdings by US$2, citing recent cuts from Piper Sandler that reflect evolving crude trade flows and a more cautious view on crude prices, while still noting supportive conditions for U.S. refiners. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Par Pacific Holdings shows a series of reduced price targets that point to a more cautious tone, even as some analysts still see supportive conditions for U.S. refiners.

PARR: Crude Trade Shifts And Share Buybacks Will Shape Future Earnings Power

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Par Pacific Holdings from US$23.00 to US$39.00, pointing to a higher assumed future P/E of about 16x, a lower discount rate, and shifting views on margins and revenue trends influenced by recent research around crude trade flows and refining supply and demand. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research paints a mixed picture for Par Pacific Holdings, with price targets being trimmed even as some commentary highlights supportive refining fundamentals.

PARR: Future Share Buybacks Will Support Cash Returns Despite Softer Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Par Pacific Holdings to about US$60.53 from roughly US$61.73, reflecting updated views on fair value, discount rate and profit assumptions in their models. What's in the News Par Pacific Holdings repurchased 515,523 shares from July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, for US$16.28 million, representing 1.02% of its shares.

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Not Doing Enough For Some Investors As Its Shares Slump 26%

Jan 01
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Not Doing Enough For Some Investors As Its Shares Slump 26%

PARR: Future Cash Returns Will Benefit From Lower Perceived Risk

Analysts have significantly raised their price target on Par Pacific Holdings from 39 dollars to approximately 61.73 dollars, citing lower perceived risk, an improved revenue trajectory, and expectations for a higher future earnings multiple despite slimmer profit margins. What's in the News Completed a major share repurchase program, buying back a total of 5,165,264 shares (9.59% of outstanding stock) for 85.08 million dollars under the authorization announced on February 26, 2025 (Key Developments) Between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, repurchased 515,523 shares (1.02% of outstanding stock) for 16.28 million dollars, signaling continued capital returns to shareholders (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value: increased significantly from approximately 39 dollars to about 61.73 dollars per share, indicating a higher intrinsic valuation.

PARR: Ongoing Buybacks And Lower Risk Will Offset Revenue Headwinds

Analysts have raised their price target for Par Pacific Holdings from $44.00 to $47.38, citing updated fair value calculations and slight adjustments to long-term financial projections. What's in the News Par Pacific Holdings completed a share repurchase tranche from July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, buying back 515,523 shares for $16.28 million (Key Developments).

PARR: Future Buybacks And Lower Risk Expectations Will Balance Profit Pressure

Analysts have raised their price target for Par Pacific Holdings from $40.38 to $44.00. This adjustment is based on reassessments of discount rates, revenue growth projections, and revised profit margin expectations.

PARR: Share Buybacks And Easing Headwinds Will Support Future Stability

Analysts have raised their price target for Par Pacific Holdings from $39.63 to $40.38. They cite slight improvements in key financial projections and a lower discount rate, which together enhance the company's forecasted valuation.

Asia Demand And Renewable Fuels Projects Will Shape Future Markets

Analysts have raised their price target for Par Pacific Holdings from $35.50 to $39.63, citing improved profit margin forecasts and a less negative outlook for revenue growth. What's in the News Par Pacific Holdings completed a share buyback tranche, repurchasing 1,605,727 shares (3.07%) for $27.94 million from April 1, 2025 to June 30, 2025.

Asia Demand And Renewable Fuels Projects Will Shape Future Markets

Analysts have raised their price target for Par Pacific Holdings from $33.00 to $35.50, citing slightly improved profit margin expectations and a lower discount rate, even though they have adopted a more conservative outlook on future revenue growth. What's in the News Par Pacific Holdings has completed the repurchase of 4,649,741 shares, representing 8.58% of its outstanding shares, for a total of $68.8 million as part of its ongoing buyback program.

Asia Demand And Renewable Fuels Projects Will Shape Future Markets

Par Pacific Holdings’ consensus price target has increased to $33.00, as a sharply higher expected P/E multiple outweighed the impact of a notable decline in net profit margin. What's in the News Par Pacific Holdings completed the repurchase of 4,649,741 shares (8.58% of shares outstanding) for $68.8 million under its recent buyback program.

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Held Back By Insufficient Growth Even After Shares Climb 25%

Sep 06
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Held Back By Insufficient Growth Even After Shares Climb 25%

Improved Revenues Required Before Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Stock's 30% Jump Looks Justified

Jul 02
Improved Revenues Required Before Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Stock's 30% Jump Looks Justified

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:PARR) Shares Bounce 34% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry

May 09
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:PARR) Shares Bounce 34% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry

Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:PARR) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt

Apr 23
Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:PARR) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

Mar 01
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

Improved Earnings Required Before Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Shares Find Their Feet

Jan 14
Improved Earnings Required Before Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Shares Find Their Feet

Par Pacific Holdings' (NYSE:PARR) Anemic Earnings Might Be Worse Than You Think

Nov 20
Par Pacific Holdings' (NYSE:PARR) Anemic Earnings Might Be Worse Than You Think

Par Pacific: Rolling The Dice With Debt-Funded Share Buybacks

Nov 12

Is Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:PARR) A Risky Investment?

Oct 30
Is Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:PARR) A Risky Investment?

Benign Growth For Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Underpins Its Share Price

Oct 04
Benign Growth For Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Underpins Its Share Price
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Refinery Reliability And Renewable Shifts Spark Hope Amid Forecasts Of Shrinking Profits

Strategic growth initiatives and operational improvements in refineries bolster revenue streams by diversifying products and enhancing production efficiency.

Is Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:PARR) Using Too Much Debt?

Jul 30
Is Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:PARR) Using Too Much Debt?

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:PARR - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20287,292N/A247N/A2
12/31/20277,6853472576435
12/31/20268,2806755878915
12/31/20257,465369296445N/A
9/30/20257,484236167336N/A
6/30/20257,615-1930195N/A
3/31/20257,739-60-9757N/A
12/31/20247,974-33-5284N/A
9/30/20248,326312-1997N/A
6/30/20248,761476177288N/A
3/31/20248,528487374465N/A
12/31/20238,232729497579N/A
9/30/20237,857524596665N/A
6/30/20237,334620682737N/A
3/31/20237,657739549599N/A
12/31/20227,322364400453N/A
9/30/20226,806288240287N/A
6/30/20226,061102-46-2N/A
3/31/20225,172-156-42-5N/A
12/31/20214,710-81-57-28N/A
9/30/20214,132-221-51-9N/A
6/30/20213,512-317-117-69N/A
3/31/20212,809-249-139-82N/A
12/31/20203,125-409-101-37N/A
9/30/20203,808-242-2933N/A
6/30/20204,520-31142115N/A
3/31/20205,414-24296177N/A
12/31/20195,4024022106N/A
9/30/20194,88119N/A137N/A
6/30/20194,39096N/A84N/A
3/31/20193,83784N/A21N/A
12/31/20183,41139N/A91N/A
9/30/20183,19544N/A53N/A
6/30/20182,89568N/A76N/A
3/31/20182,60359N/A94N/A
12/31/20172,44372N/A106N/A
9/30/20172,34367N/A123N/A
6/30/20172,24320N/A67N/A
3/31/20172,0920N/A-11N/A
12/31/20161,865-46N/A-23N/A
9/30/20161,745-126N/A-53N/A
6/30/20161,731-84N/A5N/A
3/31/20161,901-59N/A58N/A
12/31/20152,066-40N/A132N/A
9/30/20152,33158N/A166N/A
6/30/20152,6904N/A117N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PARR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: PARR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PARR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PARR's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PARR's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.6% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PARR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.6%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/03 19:50
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/01 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is covered by 18 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Rhett BrunoBofA Global Research
Shannon NomeDeutsche Bank
Neil MehtaGoldman Sachs