PARR: Future Cash Returns Will Benefit From Lower Perceived Risk

Analysts have significantly raised their price target on Par Pacific Holdings from 39 dollars to approximately 61.73 dollars, citing lower perceived risk, an improved revenue trajectory, and expectations for a higher future earnings multiple despite slimmer profit margins.

What's in the News

• Completed a major share repurchase program, buying back a total of 5,165,264 shares (9.59% of outstanding stock) for 85.08 million dollars under the authorization announced on February 26, 2025 (Key Developments)
• Between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, repurchased 515,523 shares (1.02% of outstanding stock) for 16.28 million dollars, signaling continued capital returns to shareholders (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: increased significantly from approximately 39 dollars to about 61.73 dollars per share, indicating a higher intrinsic valuation.
• Discount Rate: decreased modestly from about 8.25 percent to roughly 7.34 percent, reflecting slightly lower perceived risk in the cash flow outlook.
• Revenue Growth: revised upward from a contraction of about 1.24 percent to a smaller decline of roughly 0.55 percent, implying a less negative growth trajectory.
• Net Profit Margin: reduced significantly from approximately 5.42 percent to about 1.70 percent, pointing to expectations of slimmer profitability.
• Future P/E: expanded sharply from roughly 4.98 times to about 24.35 times earnings, signaling a substantially higher valuation multiple on projected earnings.