Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

Shareholders might have noticed that Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.0% to US$14.37 in the past week. The statutory results were mixed overall, with revenues of US$8.0b in line with analyst forecasts, but losses of US$0.59 per share, some 4.1% larger than the analysts were predicting. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Par Pacific Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the six analysts covering Par Pacific Holdings provided consensus estimates of US$6.19b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a painful 22% decline over the past 12 months. Par Pacific Holdings is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.50 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.82 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$22.00, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Par Pacific Holdings' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Par Pacific Holdings at US$26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$18.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 22% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 18% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Par Pacific Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$22.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Par Pacific Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Par Pacific Holdings , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.