Assessing NOV’s Valuation Following New U.S. Tariffs on Imported Heavy Trucks

The United States government’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks is expected to affect companies like NOV (NYSE:NOV), which depend on these vehicles for operations and logistics. Investors are watching how this policy shift could influence costs and industry dynamics.

See our latest analysis for NOV.

NOV’s share price has struggled for momentum this year, losing just over 7% year-to-date and posting a one-year total shareholder return of -10.8%. Despite some recent gains, the longer-term three-year total return remains in the red. However, the five-year total shareholder return sits at an impressive 67.5%. This backdrop of mixed performance and shifting sentiment makes the latest policy change especially interesting as investors gauge whether cost pressures or new opportunities will define the next chapter for NOV.

If this policy shakeup has you curious about other potential movers in related industries, now’s an ideal moment to explore See the full list for free.

With NOV trading at a discount to analyst price targets and recent policies shaking up the landscape, investors are left wondering if the stock is undervalued or if the market has already priced in any future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.2% Undervalued

With NOV’s fair value pegged at $15.38 by the most widely followed narrative, its last close at $13.66 means analysts see room for upside and renewed investor interest if the assumptions hold true.

Anticipated acceleration in offshore oil and gas activity beginning in 2026, with deepwater projects increasingly becoming the incremental source of global production, is expected to drive significant demand for NOV's high-spec drilling and production technologies. This positions the company for robust revenue and margin growth as project backlogs convert. (Revenue, net margins)

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what aggressive catalysts and bold offshore growth bets are embedded in this narrative? Discover the assumptions that could supercharge NOV’s future valuation. The figures behind this price target will surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $15.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained trade policy uncertainty and persistent margin pressures could still threaten NOV’s long-term earnings outlook and challenge the bullish case.

Find out about the key risks to this NOV narrative.

Build Your Own NOV Narrative

If you’d like to reach your own conclusions or dig deeper into the numbers, you can create a personalized NOV narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your NOV research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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