Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

NYSE:NOG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.1b

Northern Oil and Gas Valuation

Is NOG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NOG ($41.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($59.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

NOG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.3x
PEG Ratio1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.4x
DEN Denbury
9.5x-18.5%US$4.6b
CHRD Chord Energy
8x15.0%US$7.3b
VNOM Viper Energy
18x-1.7%US$7.2b
BSM Black Stone Minerals
10.1x-1.8%US$3.3b
NOG Northern Oil and Gas
7x6.2%US$4.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the peer average (12x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a5.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a5.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7x
Fair PE Ratio11.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NOG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$41.38
US$49.86
+20.5%
9.7%US$58.00US$42.00n/a11
Jul ’25US$37.68
US$49.68
+31.9%
10.1%US$58.00US$41.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$40.93
US$49.32
+20.5%
9.4%US$56.00US$41.00n/a11
May ’25US$39.67
US$50.13
+26.4%
10.0%US$56.00US$41.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$39.65
US$46.42
+17.1%
11.7%US$56.00US$38.00n/a13
Mar ’25US$36.45
US$45.88
+25.9%
11.3%US$56.00US$38.00n/a13
Feb ’25US$33.17
US$47.46
+43.1%
12.1%US$58.00US$39.00n/a13
Jan ’25US$37.07
US$50.50
+36.2%
7.6%US$56.00US$44.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$37.90
US$51.75
+36.5%
8.2%US$60.00US$44.00n/a12
Nov ’24US$37.82
US$51.08
+35.1%
7.6%US$57.00US$43.00n/a12
Oct ’24US$40.23
US$51.17
+27.2%
6.9%US$57.00US$46.00n/a12
Sep ’24US$42.99
US$49.92
+16.1%
8.7%US$57.00US$43.00n/a12
Aug ’24US$39.37
US$46.17
+17.3%
9.6%US$54.00US$41.00n/a12
Jul ’24US$34.32
US$46.08
+34.3%
12.7%US$60.00US$39.00US$37.6812
Jun ’24US$29.93
US$46.58
+55.6%
11.6%US$58.00US$39.00US$40.9312
May ’24US$33.33
US$47.17
+41.5%
12.9%US$59.00US$38.00US$39.6712
Apr ’24US$30.35
US$44.46
+46.5%
8.8%US$51.00US$38.00US$39.6513
Mar ’24US$32.16
US$45.77
+42.3%
13.3%US$60.00US$38.00US$36.4513
Feb ’24US$32.93
US$47.46
+44.1%
18.5%US$61.00US$30.00US$33.1713
Jan ’24US$30.82
US$50.08
+62.5%
19.4%US$64.00US$30.00US$37.0713
Dec ’23US$35.32
US$51.62
+46.1%
21.8%US$66.00US$30.00US$37.9013
Nov ’23US$34.56
US$48.69
+40.9%
23.9%US$66.00US$30.00US$37.8213
Oct ’23US$27.41
US$47.82
+74.5%
28.4%US$69.00US$30.00US$40.2311
Sep ’23US$30.32
US$45.73
+50.8%
27.3%US$69.00US$30.00US$42.9911
Aug ’23US$28.56
US$44.55
+56.0%
24.0%US$61.00US$30.00US$39.3711
Jul ’23US$25.36
US$44.92
+77.1%
25.9%US$70.00US$30.00US$34.3212

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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