Mach Natural Resources LP

NYSE:MNR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.7b

Mach Natural Resources Valuation

Is MNR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MNR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$46.55
Fair Value
69.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
5
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: MNR ($14.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($46.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MNR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MNR?

Key metric: As MNR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MNR. This is calculated by dividing MNR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MNR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9x
EarningsUS$185.18m
Market CapUS$1.65b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MNR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MNR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.3x
DMLP Dorchester Minerals
15.6xn/aUS$1.4b
NOG Northern Oil and Gas
4.6x-3.2%US$2.3b
SBR Sabine Royalty Trust
12.3xn/aUS$976.2m
INR Infinity Natural Resources
5x35.0%US$928.4m
MNR Mach Natural Resources
9x10.6%US$1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MNR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the peer average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MNR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
IMPP Imperial Petroleum
1.7x26.8%US$78.86m
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
MNR 9.0xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies19PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MNR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MNR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MNR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9x
Fair PE Ratio13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MNR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MNR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$14.04
US$23.50
+67.4%
13.3%US$27.50US$18.00n/a5
Apr ’26US$15.77
US$24.70
+56.6%
6.2%US$27.50US$23.00n/a5
Mar ’26US$14.85
US$24.20
+63.0%
3.1%US$25.00US$23.00n/a5
Feb ’26US$17.80
US$23.60
+32.6%
6.3%US$25.00US$21.00n/a5
Jan ’26US$17.18
US$22.80
+32.7%
7.0%US$25.00US$21.00n/a5
Dec ’25US$15.58
US$23.33
+49.8%
7.3%US$25.00US$21.00n/a3
Nov ’25US$15.75
US$23.67
+50.3%
5.3%US$25.00US$22.00n/a3
Oct ’25US$16.22
US$23.67
+45.9%
5.3%US$25.00US$22.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$19.32
US$26.33
+36.3%
6.5%US$28.00US$24.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$18.90
US$26.33
+39.3%
6.5%US$28.00US$24.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$19.74
US$26.33
+33.4%
6.5%US$28.00US$24.00n/a3
Jun ’25US$19.23
US$26.33
+36.9%
6.5%US$28.00US$24.00n/a3
May ’25US$20.42
US$26.50
+29.8%
5.7%US$28.00US$24.00n/a4
Apr ’25US$19.30
US$25.00
+29.5%
9.4%US$29.00US$23.00US$15.774
Mar ’25US$18.55
US$24.25
+30.7%
12.2%US$29.00US$21.00US$14.854
Feb ’25US$17.27
US$24.25
+40.4%
12.2%US$29.00US$21.00US$17.804
Jan ’25US$16.49
US$24.50
+48.6%
13.7%US$30.00US$21.00US$17.184
Dec ’24US$17.79
US$26.25
+47.6%
11.9%US$31.00US$23.00US$15.584
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
US$23.50
Fair Value
40.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
5
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/25 08:35
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/25 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Mach Natural Resources LP is covered by 6 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Charles MeadeJohnson Rice & Company, L.L.C.
John FreemanRaymond James & Associates
Michael SciallaStephens, Inc.