Mach Natural Resources LP

NYSE:MNR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.7b

Mach Natural Resources Valuation

Is MNR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MNR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MNR ($16.63) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($51.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MNR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MNR?

Key metric: As MNR is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MNR. This is calculated by dividing MNR's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MNR's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2x
SalesUS$873.77m
Market CapUS$1.70b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MNR's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MNR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.9x
DMLP Dorchester Minerals
9.5xn/aUS$1.6b
TALO Talos Energy
1.1x0.1%US$2.1b
KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners
4x3.0%US$1.5b
KOS Kosmos Energy
1.1x2.2%US$1.8b
MNR Mach Natural Resources
2x5.9%US$1.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MNR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x) compared to the peer average (3.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MNR's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

37 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PSX Phillips 66
0.4x-5.4%US$54.29b
MPC Marathon Petroleum
0.4x-3.6%US$51.22b
VLO Valero Energy
0.3x-2.7%US$44.70b
PAA Plains All American Pipeline
0.2x-2.1%US$12.36b
MNR 2.0xIndustry Avg. 1.8xNo. of Companies37PS01.63.24.86.48+
37 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MNR is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MNR's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MNR PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2x
Fair PS Ratio1.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MNR is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MNR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$16.63
US$23.67
+42.3%
5.3%US$25.00US$22.00n/a3
Nov ’25US$15.75
US$23.67
+50.3%
5.3%US$25.00US$22.00n/a3
Oct ’25US$16.22
US$23.67
+45.9%
5.3%US$25.00US$22.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$19.32
US$26.33
+36.3%
6.5%US$28.00US$24.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$18.90
US$26.33
+39.3%
6.5%US$28.00US$24.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$19.74
US$26.33
+33.4%
6.5%US$28.00US$24.00n/a3
Jun ’25US$19.23
US$26.33
+36.9%
6.5%US$28.00US$24.00n/a3
May ’25US$20.42
US$26.50
+29.8%
5.7%US$28.00US$24.00n/a4
Apr ’25US$19.30
US$25.00
+29.5%
9.4%US$29.00US$23.00n/a4
Mar ’25US$18.55
US$24.25
+30.7%
12.2%US$29.00US$21.00n/a4
Feb ’25US$17.27
US$24.25
+40.4%
12.2%US$29.00US$21.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$16.49
US$24.50
+48.6%
13.7%US$30.00US$21.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$17.79
US$26.25
+47.6%
11.9%US$31.00US$23.00n/a4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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