Mach Natural Resources Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
Mach Natural Resources's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -35%, while the Oil and Gas industry saw earnings growing at 8.4% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 11.8% per year. Mach Natural Resources's return on equity is 5%, and it has net margins of 8%.
Key information
-35.03%
Earnings growth rate
-59.55%
EPS growth rate
| Oil and Gas Industry Growth | 33.67% |
| Revenue growth rate | 11.84% |
| Return on equity | 4.98% |
| Net Margin | 7.96% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Analysis Article • May 15
Mach Natural Resources' (NYSE:MNR) Problems Go Beyond Weak Profit
Mach Natural Resources LP's ( NYSE:MNR ) stock showed strength, with investors undeterred by its weak earnings report...
Narrative Update • May 12
MNR: Equity Offering And 2026 Production Guidance Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have revised their price target for Mach Natural Resources to $19.14. The change is based on updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, which they view as better reflecting the company’s current risk and return profile.Narrative Update • Apr 27
MNR: Equity Offering And 2026 Production Outlook Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have nudged their price target for Mach Natural Resources from about $18.57 to around $19.14, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources LP filed a follow-on equity offering of 9,000,000 common units of common stock.Narrative Update • Apr 11
MNR: Production Outlook And Distributions Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have updated their view on Mach Natural Resources with a refined price target of $18.57, reflecting slight adjustments to the discount rate, expected revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions that together reshape how they view the stock’s risk and earnings profile. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources LP filed a follow-on equity offering of 9,000,000 common units, classified as common stock.
New Narrative • Apr 09
Deep Anadarko Cost Pressures Will Challenge Cash Distributions Yet Long Reserve Life Should Support Returns
Catalysts About Mach Natural Resources Mach Natural Resources is an energy producer focused on oil, natural gas and NGL production across the Mid-Continent and San Juan Basin, with a model centered on cash distributions to unitholders. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 27
MNR: Higher Margins And Cash Distributions Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Mach Natural Resources to approximately $18.57 from $19, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources issued production guidance for fiscal 2026, with total production expected to range between 150 MBoe/d and 157 MBoe/d (Corporate Guidance).
New Narrative • Mar 26
Long Life Acreage And Growing Reserves Will Support Stronger Future Cash Distributions
Catalysts About Mach Natural Resources Mach Natural Resources is an oil and gas producer focused on acquiring and developing long life, cash generative assets in the Mid Continent and San Juan Basin. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 12
MNR: Steady Fair Value And Cash Distributions Will Support Future Upside
Analysts kept their fair value estimate for Mach Natural Resources steady at $19.00, noting only very small adjustments in discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions that together did not meaningfully change their price target view. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources LP declared a fourth quarter 2025 cash distribution of $0.53 per common unit for its unitholders.Narrative Update • Feb 25
MNR: Future Cash Distributions Will Support Upside As Discount Assumptions Ease
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Mach Natural Resources slightly, citing updated assumptions for fair value of $19.0, modestly adjusted discount rates and revenue growth expectations, and a small change to the implied future P/E multiple. What's in the News The board of directors of Mach Natural Resources LP's general partner declared a fourth quarter 2025 cash distribution of $0.53 per common unit.Narrative Update • Feb 11
MNR: Future Cash Distributions Will Drive Upside With Improved Market Confidence
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Mach Natural Resources to $19.40, citing updated assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E as the key drivers of this adjustment. Valuation Changes Fair Value: $19.40 has been maintained, with no change from the prior estimate.Seeking Alpha • Feb 03
Mach Natural Resources: High Yield And Deeply Discounted Gas Exposure To Fuel The AI Boom
Summary Mach Natural Resources is rated Buy, offering strong fundamentals, robust cash generation, and a compelling margin of safety at current valuations. MNR's transformative $1.3B acquisition strategy almost doubles production, enhances scale, and boosts exposure to long-life, low-risk natural gas assets. Guidance projects FY26 production of 150–157 MBoe/d, potentially getting their CAD to ~$300M, sustaining their 9–10% distributions, supported by prudent leverage and disciplined capital allocation. While commodity price volatility presents risk, MNR's focus on natural gas and accretive reinvestment positions it to benefit from long-term energy demand tailwinds. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jan 26
MNR: Future Cash Distributions Will Drive Upside Despite Recent Impairment
Analysts have adjusted their price target for Mach Natural Resources to US$19.40 from about US$19.17, citing updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that slightly refine their outlook on the shares. What's in the News Reported third quarter 2025 production results, with average total net production of 94,000 Mboe/d for the period (company announcement).Narrative Update • Jan 11
MNR: Future Cash Distributions Will Support Upside Despite Recent Asset Impairment
Analysts have reduced their price target for Mach Natural Resources by about $0.67, reflecting slightly revised assumptions for fair value, discount rate, margin, and forward P/E in their updated models. What's in the News Reported third quarter 2025 total net production of 94,000 Mboe/d, providing a fresh reference point for recent operating scale (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Dec 23
MNR: Future Distribution Stability Will Support Upside Despite Recent Impairment
Narrative Update on Mach Natural Resources Analysts have reaffirmed their price target for Mach Natural Resources at approximately $19.83 per share, citing largely unchanged expectations for growth, profitability, and valuation multiples, with only marginal adjustments to discount rate assumptions. What's in the News Reported third quarter 2025 operating results, with average total net production reaching 94,000 Mboe/d, highlighting continued scale in upstream operations (company filing) Recorded a $90.43 million impairment of oil and gas properties for the third quarter of 2025, signaling a reassessment of asset values amid commodity and reserve updates (company filing) Declared a reduced quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit for the third quarter of 2025, payable December 4, 2025 to unitholders of record on November 20, 2025 (company announcement) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at approximately $19.83 per share, reflecting consistent expectations for long term intrinsic value.Narrative Update • Dec 08
MNR: Higher Future Multiple May Reward Moderate Profitability Expectations
Analysts have trimmed their 12 month price target on Mach Natural Resources from approximately $21.00 to about $19.83 per share, citing expectations for slower revenue growth and moderating profit margins, partly offset by a higher assumed future price to earnings multiple. What's in the News Reported third quarter 2025 operating results, with average total net production of 94,000 Mboe/d and highlighted continued scale in its upstream portfolio (Key Developments) Recorded a $90.43 million impairment charge on oil and gas properties for the third quarter of 2025, signaling reassessment of asset values amid changing market conditions (Key Developments) Declared a reduced quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit for the third quarter of 2025, payable on December 4, 2025 to unitholders of record on November 20, 2025 (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate was lowered moderately from approximately $21.00 to about $19.83 per share, reflecting a slightly more conservative outlook on intrinsic value.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Growing US Natural Gas Demand Will Unlock Long-Term Value
Mach Natural Resources’ consensus price target was revised downward, primarily reflecting a lower future P/E multiple, resulting in a reduced fair value estimate of $21.00. What's in the News Reported Q2 average production of 83.6 Mboe/d, with 23% oil, 53% natural gas, and 24% NGLs. Q2 production revenues totaled $219 million: 51% oil, 31% natural gas, 18% NGLs. Declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.38 per common unit for Q2.Analysis Article • Aug 10
Mach Natural Resources LP Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year
NYSE:MNR 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Mach Natural Resources's Fair Values from the Community and select...
New Narrative • May 01
2025 Rig Increase And Acquisitions Will Secure Future Potential
Mach Natural Resources aims to grow through strategic acquisitions during market distress, focusing on high-return projects and maintaining low costs to maximize earnings.Analysis Article • Mar 16
The Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) Annual Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
It's shaping up to be a tough period for Mach Natural Resources LP ( NYSE:MNR ), which a week ago released some...Seeking Alpha • Feb 07
Mach Natural Resources Reduces Its Interest Costs With A New Credit Facility
Summary Mach Natural Resources LP announced a roughly 12.9 million unit public offering at $15.50 per unit. The proceeds are going to help pay for a minor prior acquisition as well as pay down some of its term loan credit facility debt. Mach is also entering into a new credit facility and will pay down the rest of its term loan credit facility debt using that new facility. This is expected to save Mach $38 million in 2025 interest costs, as well as push out its credit facility maturity by over 2 years. This also potentially frees up more cash for distributions, since Mach's new credit facility doesn't have required payments. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 25
Sentiment Still Eluding Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR)
It's not a stretch to say that Mach Natural Resources LP's ( NYSE:MNR ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2.2x right...Analysis Article • Dec 11
Mach Natural Resources (NYSE:MNR) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Seeking Alpha • Nov 26
Mach Natural Resources: Expect A Smaller Distribution In 2025
Summary Mach Natural Resources announced $3.20 per unit in 2024 distributions. This was boosted by the sale of non-producing assets and drawing down some of its cash on hand. Mach is currently projected to generate $2.18 per unit in 2025 free cash flow. It also has $83 million (about $0.80 per unit) in 2025 term loan repayments to make. Mach's 2025 distributions are likely to add up to under $2 per unit. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 12
Mach Natural Resources: Using Acquisitions To Boost Near-Term Free Cash Flow
Summary Mach's Q2 2024 oil production was around expectations, while its production of natural gas and NGLs significantly outperformed expectations. Mach reduced its 2024 capex budget, leading to 2H 2024 oil production expectations being reduced by around 7%. Mach then announced a public offering to help pay for two acquisitions. These acquisitions may boost Mach's 2025 free cash flow per unit by $0.25 at mid-$60s oil. The Ardmore Basin assets appears to have high decline rates though, so the benefit in later years is more uncertain. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 04
Mach Natural Resources Makes Progress With Cost Reductions
Summary Mach is now projected to generate $3.19 per unit in 2024 free cash flow. Mach's production is declining, but due to stronger natural gas prices, it should be able to deliver a similar amount of free cash flow in 2025 based on current strip. Mach has made progress in reducing both its operating costs and D&C costs. Costs with its Paloma assets have been better than expected. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • May 21
Mach Natural Resources' (NYSE:MNR) Anemic Earnings Might Be Worse Than You Think
A lackluster earnings announcement from Mach Natural Resources LP ( NYSE:MNR ) last week didn't sink the stock price...Seeking Alpha • Apr 16
Mach Natural Resources: Projected To Generate A Bit Over $3 Per Unit In 2024 FCF
Summary Mach Natural Resources LP is projected to generate $3.05 per unit in 2024 free cash flow at current strip. This involves a below maintenance capex budget, though, with oil production kept relatively flat, but noticeable production declines in natural gas and NGLs. Mach is also required to make regular repayments on its secured term loan. Thus, I expect subsequent near-term distributions to be typically lower than its $0.95 per unit distribution in March 2024. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Mach Natural Resources makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 1,157 | 92 | 55 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 1,045 | 143 | 57 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 956 | 106 | 52 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 931 | 210 | 39 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 942 | 159 | 41 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 943 | 185 | 41 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 874 | -36 | 44 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 834 | -20 | 39 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 758 | 19 | 33 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 673 | 69 | 28 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 721 | 375 | 21 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 831 | 464 | 22 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 901 | 497 | 23 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 957 | 517 | 25 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 439 | 138 | 61 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: MNR has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: MNR's current net profit margins (8%) are lower than last year (16.9%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: MNR's earnings have declined by 35% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: MNR's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: MNR had negative earnings growth (-42.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Oil and Gas industry average (6%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: MNR's Return on Equity (5%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/25 22:01 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Mach Natural Resources LP is covered by 9 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Charles Meade | Johnson Rice & Company, L.L.C. |
| Timothy Rezvan | KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. |
| Jeffrey Grampp | Northland Capital Markets |