Civitas Resources, Inc.

NYSE:CIVI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.9b

Civitas Resources Valuation

Is CIVI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CIVI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CIVI ($51.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($226.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CIVI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CIVI?

Key metric: As CIVI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CIVI. This is calculated by dividing CIVI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CIVI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5x
EarningsUS$990.48m
Market CapUS$4.91b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CIVI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CIVI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.2x
DEN Denbury
9.5x-18.5%US$4.6b
NOG Northern Oil and Gas
4.9x-25.0%US$4.1b
CHRD Chord Energy
8.5x4.3%US$7.8b
MUR Murphy Oil
10.1x12.9%US$4.7b
CIVI Civitas Resources
5x-3.5%US$4.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CIVI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5x) compared to the peer average (7.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CIVI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
CIVI 5.0xIndustry Avg. 11.8xNo. of Companies15PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CIVI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CIVI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CIVI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5x
Fair PE Ratio9.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CIVI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CIVI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$51.60
US$74.53
+44.4%
10.8%US$84.00US$60.00n/a15
Nov ’25US$48.31
US$76.33
+58.0%
9.7%US$85.00US$60.00n/a15
Oct ’25US$51.77
US$82.07
+58.5%
8.9%US$94.00US$68.00n/a14
Sep ’25US$61.33
US$90.14
+47.0%
7.6%US$101.00US$75.00n/a14
Aug ’25US$67.14
US$93.57
+39.4%
7.5%US$106.00US$82.00n/a14
Jul ’25US$68.62
US$95.23
+38.8%
7.1%US$106.00US$85.00n/a13
Jun ’25US$73.56
US$95.67
+30.1%
7.2%US$106.00US$85.00n/a12
May ’25US$70.76
US$94.68
+33.8%
7.5%US$106.00US$85.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$75.87
US$90.18
+18.9%
11.1%US$110.00US$75.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$70.81
US$88.36
+24.8%
9.9%US$107.00US$75.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$63.35
US$89.70
+41.6%
11.0%US$107.00US$75.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$68.38
US$91.80
+34.2%
12.3%US$106.00US$75.00n/a10
Dec ’24US$69.28
US$94.60
+36.5%
10.8%US$112.00US$75.00n/a10
Nov ’24US$74.74
US$95.00
+27.1%
9.6%US$106.00US$75.00US$48.3110
Oct ’24US$80.87
US$92.56
+14.4%
10.1%US$106.00US$75.00US$51.779
Sep ’24US$83.62
US$90.38
+8.1%
9.4%US$100.00US$75.00US$61.338
Aug ’24US$75.40
US$83.50
+10.7%
8.3%US$96.00US$75.00US$67.146
Jul ’24US$69.37
US$82.33
+18.7%
9.8%US$97.00US$74.00US$68.626
Jun ’24US$67.43
US$82.29
+22.0%
8.0%US$93.00US$74.00US$73.567
May ’24US$68.41
US$82.43
+20.5%
7.9%US$91.00US$74.00US$70.767
Apr ’24US$68.34
US$81.00
+18.5%
6.7%US$90.00US$75.00US$75.877
Mar ’24US$71.71
US$80.29
+12.0%
9.7%US$94.00US$72.00US$70.817
Feb ’24US$64.41
US$78.14
+21.3%
9.8%US$93.00US$70.00US$63.357
Jan ’24US$57.93
US$80.83
+39.5%
10.4%US$96.00US$70.00US$68.386
Dec ’23US$65.88
US$84.33
+28.0%
11.0%US$96.00US$70.00US$69.286
Nov ’23US$69.50
US$81.67
+17.5%
9.7%US$94.00US$70.00US$74.746

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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