HighPeak Energy, Inc.

NasdaqGM:HPK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.9b

HighPeak Energy Valuation

Is HPK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HPK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HPK ($15.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($22.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HPK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HPK?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HPK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA2.9x
PEG Ratio0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HPK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HPK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.8x
ESTE Earthstone Energy
7.3x23.3%US$3.0b
CPE Callon Petroleum
5.9x3.2%US$2.4b
KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners
37.6x44.6%US$1.5b
KOS Kosmos Energy
8.2x0.2%US$2.0b
HPK HighPeak Energy
12.6x17.5%US$1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HPK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the peer average (17.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HPK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a5.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a5.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HPK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (10.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HPK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HPK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.6x
Fair PE Ratio12.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HPK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HPK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$15.10
US$22.75
+50.7%
38.5%US$31.50US$14.00n/a2
Sep ’25US$16.08
US$23.50
+46.1%
30.7%US$31.50US$14.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$15.74
US$23.50
+49.3%
30.7%US$31.50US$14.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$14.02
US$23.17
+65.2%
33.1%US$31.50US$13.00n/a3
Jun ’25US$15.78
US$23.17
+46.8%
33.1%US$31.50US$13.00n/a3
May ’25US$13.78
US$22.17
+60.9%
40.6%US$31.50US$10.00n/a3
Apr ’25US$15.80
US$22.50
+42.4%
38.0%US$31.50US$11.00n/a3
Mar ’25US$16.75
US$22.50
+34.3%
38.0%US$31.50US$11.00n/a3
Feb ’25US$13.16
US$23.40
+77.8%
40.8%US$34.20US$11.00n/a3
Jan ’25US$14.24
US$23.07
+62.0%
43.2%US$34.20US$10.00n/a3
Dec ’24US$15.68
US$23.07
+47.1%
43.2%US$34.20US$10.00n/a3
Nov ’24US$17.76
US$21.73
+22.4%
54.0%US$34.20US$6.00n/a3
Oct ’24US$16.88
US$21.40
+26.8%
57.0%US$34.20US$5.00US$14.393
Sep ’24US$15.18
US$22.17
+46.0%
58.7%US$36.50US$5.00US$16.083
Aug ’24US$14.50
US$22.50
+55.2%
55.9%US$36.50US$6.00US$15.743
Jul ’24US$10.88
US$29.33
+169.6%
51.4%US$40.00US$8.00US$14.023
Jun ’24US$12.89
US$29.33
+127.6%
51.4%US$40.00US$8.00US$15.783
May ’24US$19.30
US$32.25
+67.1%
49.5%US$46.75US$10.00US$13.783
Apr ’24US$23.00
US$43.38
+88.6%
7.8%US$46.75US$40.00US$15.802
Mar ’24US$27.95
US$43.38
+55.2%
7.8%US$46.75US$40.00US$16.752
Feb ’24US$27.84
US$43.38
+55.8%
7.8%US$46.75US$40.00US$13.162
Jan ’24US$22.87
US$45.00
+96.8%
11.1%US$50.00US$40.00US$14.242
Dec ’23US$23.56
US$45.00
+91.0%
11.1%US$50.00US$40.00US$15.682
Nov ’23US$23.74
US$45.00
+89.6%
11.1%US$50.00US$40.00US$17.762
Oct ’23US$21.66
US$45.00
+107.8%
11.1%US$50.00US$40.00US$16.882

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.


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