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NOG

Northern Oil and Gas NYSE:NOG Stock Report

Last Price

US$32.87

Market Cap

US$2.6b

7D

21.8%

1Y

33.5%

Updated

06 Oct, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
NOG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth3/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health3/6
Dividends2/6

NOG Stock Overview

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States.

Northern Oil and Gas Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Northern Oil and Gas
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$32.87
52 Week HighUS$39.10
52 Week LowUS$17.52
Beta2.09
1 Month Change5.42%
3 Month Change35.49%
1 Year Change33.51%
3 Year Change73.91%
5 Year Change305.80%
Change since IPO8.48%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 07
News Flash: Analysts Just Made A Captivating Upgrade To Their Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) Forecasts

News Flash: Analysts Just Made A Captivating Upgrade To Their Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) Forecasts

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. ( NYSE:NOG ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making...

Aug 24

Northern Oil and Gas Adds To Its Permian Position

Summary Northern Oil and Gas made a $110 million Midland Basin acquisition. It has also spent over $100 million on preferred and common share repurchases during 2022. Northern is now projected to end 2022 with $1.02 billion in net debt, which would give it 0.9x leverage. Northern appears to have reasonable upside in a long-term (after 2023) $75 WTI oil scenario. Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) continues to grow through acquisitions, this time paying $110 million to Laredo Petroleum (LPI) for non-operated (mostly operated by SM Energy (SM)) working assets in the Midland Basin (Howard County). This acquisition combined with Northern's spending on preferred and common share repurchases will likely result in its net debt exceeding $1 billion at the end of 2022. However, Northern's balance sheet should still be relatively healthy with leverage projected at 0.9x at the end of 2022. At $32 per share, Northern appears to be a better value now compared to when I looked at it a few months ago. Northern has improved its estimated value a bit through its share repurchases and I now believe it could be worth $38 per share in a scenario where prices follow current strip until the end of 2023 and then average around $75 WTI oil and $3.75 NYMEX gas after that point. Acquisition Details Northern is paying $110 million in cash to Laredo Petroleum. The effective date of the transaction is August 1, 2022 and the expected closing date is in October 2022. The acquired assets are expected to average over 1,800 BOEPD (86% oil) in production during the next 12 months, based on two-stream reporting. There are 9.6 net undeveloped and in-process locations in the approximately 1,600 net acres. Northern expects $48 million in forward-year (from the expected October closing date) unhedged cash flow from operations at mid-August strip prices. Maintenance capex is expected to be around $15 million per year to keep production steady. One thing to note is that Laredo indicated that its divested assets were expected to average approximately 1,800 BOEPD (72% oil) in production during 2023. Laredo reports production on a three-stream basis, which results in higher reported total production numbers than two-stream reporting. The oil production numbers (in barrels per day) do not change between two and three-stream reporting though. Northern's expectations for forward-year oil production is around 20% higher than what Laredo mentioned for 2023 oil production. The reason for the difference appears to be that there are 1.6 net in-process wells that are likely to come online in Q4 2022. This will significantly boost Q4 2022 production numbers, which are included in Northern's production estimates, but not in Laredo's. Acquisition Value The $110 million purchase price appears to be fair to me. This is only 2.3x forward-year cash flow from operations, but that multiple is lowered by relatively high near-term commodity prices along with the boost in production from the completion of the wells-in-process. The acquired assets are also relatively developed, with the remaining 8 net inventory locations translating into around five to six years of inventory (while attempting to maintain production levels). At a longer-term oil price (my assumption) of $75 WTI oil, the acquired assets could generate around $37 million per year in cash flow from operations if production in maintained. This would result in around $22 million per year in asset-level free cash flow. Thus the $110 million purchase price would be around 3.0x cash flow from operations at $75 WTI oil, while the free cash flow yield (excluding interest costs on the credit facility debt used in the purchase) would be 20%. These metrics appears reasonable for the current market as well as the amount of inventory included in the assets. At current strip prices (and maintenance capex), the cash flow from the assets should pay off the purchase price in around four to five years. Debt And Valuation Northern has been active in repurchasing its shares (both preferred and common). It repurchased 575,000 shares of its 6.5% convertible preferred stock for $81.2 million in 1H 2022. It also (up to the end of July) had repurchased 0.76 million common shares for $20 million. Northern's various acquisitions and share repurchases will result in it having more net debt (in total dollars) at the end of 2022 compared to the end of 2021. It ended 2021 with $795 million in net debt and I now project it to end 2022 with $1.02 billion in net debt, not including the effect of further share repurchases. Northern's leverage should end up at a reasonable level though, as I project its year-end 2022 leverage to be 0.9x. The share repurchases have helped reduce Northern's share count (assuming conversion of the preferred shares and exercise of the warrants) to approximately 88.2 million.

Shareholder Returns

NOGUS Oil and GasUS Market
7D21.8%12.1%3.3%
1Y33.5%45.8%-20.4%

Return vs Industry: NOG underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 45.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NOG exceeded the US Market which returned -18.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NOG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NOG volatility
NOG Average Weekly Movement9.3%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement8.0%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.9%

Stable Share Price: NOG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NOG's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
n/a25Nick O'Gradyhttps://www.northernoil.com

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Northern Oil and Gas Fundamentals Summary

How do Northern Oil and Gas's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NOG fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$2.59b
Earnings (TTM)US$193.63m
Revenue (TTM)US$1.47b

13.4x

P/E Ratio

1.8x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NOG income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$1.47b
Cost of RevenueUS$212.99m
Gross ProfitUS$1.26b
Other ExpensesUS$1.07b
EarningsUS$193.63m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)2.46
Gross Margin85.56%
Net Profit Margin13.13%
Debt/Equity Ratio722.1%

How did NOG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.0%

Current Dividend Yield

17%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NOG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

NOG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7.5x
PEG Ratio0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

NOG PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for NOG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.6x
CPE Callon Petroleum
3.4x-2.8%US$2.8b
MNRL Brigham Minerals
14.6x-3.9%US$1.7b
ESTE Earthstone Energy
10.2x11.9%US$2.2b
PR Permian Resources
6.4x20.5%US$2.6b
NOG Northern Oil and Gas
13.4x37.1%US$2.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the peer average (8.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (9.7x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.4x
Fair PE Ratio26x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NOG ($32.87) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($75.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Northern Oil and Gas forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


37.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NOG's forecast earnings growth (37.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: NOG's earnings (37.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NOG's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NOG's revenue (7.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NOG's revenue (7.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if NOG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Northern Oil and Gas performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-31.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NOG has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: NOG became profitable in the past.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NOG has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -31.9% per year.

Accelerating Growth: NOG has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: NOG has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (178.8%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst NOG's Return on Equity (151.97%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Northern Oil and Gas's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NOG's short term assets ($382.8M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($635.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: NOG's short term assets ($382.8M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.4B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NOG's net debt to equity ratio (721.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: NOG had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.

Debt Coverage: NOG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (53.7%).

Interest Coverage: NOG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.8x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Northern Oil and Gas's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


3.04%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Northern Oil and Gas Dividend Yield vs Market
How does Northern Oil and Gas dividend yield compare to the market?
SegmentDividend Yield
Company (Northern Oil and Gas)3.0%
Market Bottom 25% (US)1.6%
Market Top 25% (US)4.6%
Industry Average (Oil and Gas)4.4%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Northern Oil and Gas)3.7%

Notable Dividend: NOG's dividend (3.04%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.6%).

High Dividend: NOG's dividend (3.04%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.54%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether NOG's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if NOG's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (17.1%), NOG's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: NOG is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Nick O'Grady (42 yo)

2.75yrs

Tenure

US$2,618,648

Compensation

Mr. Nicholas L. O'Grady, also known as Nick, has been the Chief Executive Officer at Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., since January 1, 2020. Mr. O'Grady served as President at Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. since S...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Nick O'Grady's Compensation vs Northern Oil and Gas Earnings
How has Nick O'Grady's remuneration changed compared to Northern Oil and Gas's earnings?
DateTotal Comp.SalaryCompany Earnings
Jun 30 2022n/an/a

US$194m

Mar 31 2022n/an/a

-US$139m

Dec 31 2021US$3mUS$515k

-US$8m

Sep 30 2021n/an/a

-US$326m

Jun 30 2021n/an/a

-US$571m

Mar 31 2021n/an/a

-US$1b

Dec 31 2020US$1mUS$500k

-US$921m

Sep 30 2020n/an/a

-US$884m

Jun 30 2020n/an/a

-US$553m

Mar 31 2020n/an/a

US$394m

Dec 31 2019US$2mUS$383k

-US$77m

Sep 30 2019n/an/a

US$250m

Jun 30 2019n/an/a

US$175m

Mar 31 2019n/an/a

US$34m

Dec 31 2018US$1mUS$158k

US$144m

Compensation vs Market: Nick's total compensation ($USD2.62M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.78M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Nick's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NOG's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: NOG's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

NYSE:NOG Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
24 Aug 22SellUS$569,732Angelo, Gordon & Co., L.P.Company17,793US$32.02
23 Aug 22SellUS$6,462,472Angelo, Gordon & Co., L.P.Company208,356US$32.29
03 Jun 22SellUS$3,890,559TRT Holdings, Inc.Company117,860US$33.01
02 Jun 22SellUS$2,730,334Robert RowlingIndividual82,140US$33.24
02 Jun 22SellUS$16,573,349Cresta Investments, LLCCompany500,000US$33.63
01 Apr 22SellUS$368,364Michael KellyIndividual13,000US$28.34
17 Mar 22SellUS$323,459Lisa MeierIndividual12,500US$25.88
18 Nov 21SellUS$2,567,460Cresta Greenwood, LLCCompany134,422US$19.10
18 Nov 21SellUS$6,982,540Cresta Investments, LLCCompany365,578US$19.10
18 Nov 21SellUS$2,567,460Cresta Greenwood, LLCCompany134,422US$19.10

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of NOG?
Owner TypeNumber of SharesOwnership Percentage
Individual Insiders3,321,2144.2%
General Public4,813,1226.1%
Private Companies7,786,2319.9%
Institutions62,744,47679.8%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 19.5%.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 66.62% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
8.74%
TRT Holdings, Inc.
6,876,829$226.0m0%no data
7.7%
Capital Research and Management Company
6,054,000$199.0m0%0.01%
7.36%
FMR LLC
5,787,362$190.2m27.85%0.02%
5.72%
BlackRock, Inc.
4,500,817$147.9m1.4%no data
4.73%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
3,723,466$122.4m-4.63%no data
4.35%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
3,423,896$112.5m3.72%0.01%
3.14%
Copeland Capital Management, LLC
2,467,888$81.1m-5.38%2.37%
3.09%
Invesco Ltd.
2,433,921$80.0m18.32%0.02%
2.61%
Westwood Management Corp.
2,049,658$67.4m14.2%0.69%
2.24%
Bahram Akradi
1,763,353$58.0m0.36%no data
2.12%
Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC
1,669,970$54.9m4.25%0.01%
1.41%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
1,106,504$36.4m1.56%no data
1.4%
Allspring Global Investments, LLC
1,099,839$36.2m11.13%0.05%
1.3%
Adage Capital Management, L.P.
1,022,697$33.6m2.27%0.07%
1.3%
Angelo, Gordon & Co., L.P.
1,021,442$33.6m-18.13%2.84%
1.16%
Cresta Investments, LLC
909,402$29.9m-35.48%no data
1.09%
Hite Hedge Asset Management LLC
856,079$28.1m221.46%2.3%
0.95%
Hood River Capital Management LLC
747,985$24.6m0%0.84%
0.94%
Macquarie Investment Management Business Trust
742,364$24.4m345.1%0.02%
0.94%
Westfield Capital Management Company, L.P.
741,817$24.4m0%0.17%
0.94%
Northern Trust Global Investments
740,396$24.3m11.32%no data
0.9%
Kennedy Capital Management, Inc.
707,054$23.2m-24.8%0.6%
0.84%
Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association-College Retirement Equities Fund
657,259$21.6m-22.11%0.01%
0.83%
LMR Partners LLP
650,000$21.4m30%0.51%
0.83%
Silvercrest Asset Management Group LLC
649,128$21.3m0%0.15%

Company Information

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
  • Ticker: NOG
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: NaN
  • Industry: Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
  • Sector: Energy
  • Implied Market Cap: US$2.586b
  • Shares outstanding: 78.67m
  • Website: https://www.northernoil.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
  • 4350 Baker Road
  • Suite 400
  • Minnetonka
  • Minnesota
  • 55343
  • United States


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
NOGNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDFeb 2006
4LT1DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURFeb 2006

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/10/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/10/06 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.