Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.40

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) will increase its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 31st of January to $0.40. The payment will take the dividend yield to 4.3%, which is in line with the average for the industry.

See our latest analysis for Northern Oil and Gas

Northern Oil and Gas' Dividend Is Well Covered By Earnings

While it is always good to see a solid dividend yield, we should also consider whether the payment is feasible. Based on the last payment, Northern Oil and Gas was earning enough to cover the dividend, but free cash flows weren't positive. With the company not bringing in any cash, paying out to shareholders is bound to become difficult at some point.

Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to fall by 9.4% over the next year. If the dividend continues along the path it has been on recently, we estimate the payout ratio could be 25%, which is comfortable for the company to continue in the future.

Northern Oil and Gas Doesn't Have A Long Payment History

Looking back, the dividend has been stable, but the company hasn't been paying a dividend for very long so we can't be confident that the dividend will remain stable through all economic environments. Since 2021, the dividend has gone from $0.12 total annually to $1.60. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 265% over that duration. It is always nice to see strong dividend growth, but with such a short payment history we wouldn't be inclined to rely on it until a longer track record can be developed.

The Dividend Looks Likely To Grow

Investors who have held shares in the company for the past few years will be happy with the dividend income they have received. Northern Oil and Gas has impressed us by growing EPS at 24% per year over the past five years. Earnings have been growing rapidly, and with a low payout ratio we think that the company could turn out to be a great dividend stock.

An additional note is that the company has been raising capital by issuing stock equal to 18% of shares outstanding in the last 12 months. Trying to grow the dividend when issuing new shares reminds us of the ancient Greek tale of Sisyphus - perpetually pushing a boulder uphill. Companies that consistently issue new shares are often suboptimal from a dividend perspective.

In Summary

Overall, this is probably not a great income stock, even though the dividend is being raised at the moment. With cash flows lacking, it is difficult to see how the company can sustain a dividend payment. Overall, we don't think this company has the makings of a good income stock.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. For example, we've identified 5 warning signs for Northern Oil and Gas (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.