NGL Energy Partners Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of NGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NGL ($4.44) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($23.74)

Is NGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NGL ($4.44) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($23.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NGL?

Key metric: As NGL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NGL. This is calculated by dividing NGL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NGL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.09x
Sales	US$6.24b
Market Cap	US$586.14m

NGL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.9x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NGL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.3x
CAPL CrossAmerica Partners	0.2x	-19.2%	US$773.1m
TEN Tsakos Energy Navigation	0.7x	-1.5%	US$591.6m
SMC Summit Midstream	0.9x	n/a	US$397.7m
GPP Green Plains Partners	3.5x	n/a	US$286.4m
NGL NGL Energy Partners	0.09x	1.1%	US$586.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the peer average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NGL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

36 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	1.8x	3.3%
NGL NGL Energy Partners	0.09x	1.1%	US$586.14m
PSX Phillips 66	0.4x	-5.4%	US$55.04b
MPC Marathon Petroleum	0.4x	-3.6%	US$50.93b

36 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	1.8x	8.2%
NGL NGL Energy Partners	0.09x	178.8%	US$586.14m

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (1.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NGL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NGL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.09x
Fair PS Ratio	0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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