Marathon Petroleum's (NYSE:MPC) 60% CAGR outpaced the company's earnings growth over the same five-year period

Long term investing can be life changing when you buy and hold the truly great businesses. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. For example, the Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) share price is up a whopping 779% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. It's even up 7.3% in the last week. We love happy stories like this one. The company should be really proud of that performance!

Since the stock has added US$3.1b to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

See our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, Marathon Petroleum managed to grow its earnings per share at 32% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 54% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Marathon Petroleum's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Marathon Petroleum the TSR over the last 5 years was 933%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Marathon Petroleum had a tough year, with a total loss of 23% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 12%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 60% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Marathon Petroleum you should be aware of.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.