Stock Analysis

Here's Why We Think Magnolia Oil & Gas (NYSE:MGY) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

NYSE:MGY
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The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. Unfortunately, these high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson. Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should.

So if this idea of high risk and high reward doesn't suit, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like Magnolia Oil & Gas (NYSE:MGY). While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it.

Check out our latest analysis for Magnolia Oil & Gas

How Fast Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Growing Its Earnings Per Share?

In the last three years Magnolia Oil & Gas' earnings per share took off; so much so that it's a bit disingenuous to use these figures to try and deduce long term estimates. As a result, we'll zoom in on growth over the last year, instead. Impressively, Magnolia Oil & Gas' EPS catapulted from US$2.38 to US$4.61, over the last year. It's not often a company can achieve year-on-year growth of 94%. The best case scenario? That the business has hit a true inflection point.

It's often helpful to take a look at earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. The good news is that Magnolia Oil & Gas is growing revenues, and EBIT margins improved by 7.8 percentage points to 63%, over the last year. Both of which are great metrics to check off for potential growth.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

earnings-and-revenue-history
NYSE:MGY Earnings and Revenue History May 3rd 2023

You don't drive with your eyes on the rear-view mirror, so you might be more interested in this free report showing analyst forecasts for Magnolia Oil & Gas' future profits.

Are Magnolia Oil & Gas Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

It's pleasing to see company leaders with putting their money on the line, so to speak, because it increases alignment of incentives between the people running the business, and its true owners. Magnolia Oil & Gas followers will find comfort in knowing that insiders have a significant amount of capital that aligns their best interests with the wider shareholder group. Indeed, they have a considerable amount of wealth invested in it, currently valued at US$196m. Investors will appreciate management having this amount of skin in the game as it shows their commitment to the company's future.

While it's always good to see some strong conviction in the company from insiders through heavy investment, it's also important for shareholders to ask if management compensation policies are reasonable. Our quick analysis into CEO remuneration would seem to indicate they are. The median total compensation for CEOs of companies similar in size to Magnolia Oil & Gas, with market caps between US$2.0b and US$6.4b, is around US$6.9m.

The Magnolia Oil & Gas CEO received US$3.7m in compensation for the year ending December 2022. That seems pretty reasonable, especially given it's below the median for similar sized companies. CEO remuneration levels are not the most important metric for investors, but when the pay is modest, that does support enhanced alignment between the CEO and the ordinary shareholders. Generally, arguments can be made that reasonable pay levels attest to good decision-making.

Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Worth Keeping An Eye On?

Magnolia Oil & Gas' earnings per share growth have been climbing higher at an appreciable rate. The cherry on top is that insiders own a bucket-load of shares, and the CEO pay seems really quite reasonable. The strong EPS improvement suggests the businesses is humming along. Big growth can make big winners, so the writing on the wall tells us that Magnolia Oil & Gas is worth considering carefully. It is worth noting though that we have found 2 warning signs for Magnolia Oil & Gas (1 is concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

The beauty of investing is that you can invest in almost any company you want. But if you prefer to focus on stocks that have demonstrated insider buying, here is a list of companies with insider buying in the last three months.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Magnolia Oil & Gas is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.