Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Equitrans Midstream Corporation (NYSE:ETRN) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is Equitrans Midstream's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 Equitrans Midstream had debt of US$7.16b, up from US$5.98b in one year. On the flip side, it has US$182.5m in cash leading to net debt of about US$6.98b.
How Strong Is Equitrans Midstream's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Equitrans Midstream had liabilities of US$672.3m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$7.64b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$182.5m in cash and US$288.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$7.84b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$3.57b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Equitrans Midstream would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Equitrans Midstream has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.4 which suggests a meaningful debt load. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 3.4 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Even more troubling is the fact that Equitrans Midstream actually let its EBIT decrease by 6.5% over the last year. If it keeps going like that paying off its debt will be like running on a treadmill -- a lot of effort for not much advancement. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Equitrans Midstream can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, Equitrans Midstream created free cash flow amounting to 12% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
Our View
To be frank both Equitrans Midstream's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And furthermore, its interest cover also fails to instill confidence. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Equitrans Midstream has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Equitrans Midstream (2 are a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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