Will EQT's (EQT) Major LNG Export Deal with Sempra Redefine Its International Growth Narrative?

• Sempra Infrastructure and EQT Corporation recently announced a 20-year agreement for EQT to purchase 2 million tonnes per annum of LNG from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 development in Texas, with the supply price linked to the Henry Hub index.
• This definitive LNG deal is a significant milestone for EQT's export ambitions, providing enhanced long-term revenue visibility and further supporting the company's shift toward international markets.
• We'll explore how this long-term LNG contract with Sempra could influence EQT's investment appeal and future earnings outlook.

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EQT Investment Narrative Recap

To be comfortable as an EQT shareholder, you need to believe that ongoing US LNG export expansion and durable global demand for natural gas will outweigh regulatory and decarbonization risks. The company’s 20-year LNG export agreement with Sempra Infrastructure provides long-term revenue visibility, a positive for its international ambitions, though it does not materially change the most important near-term catalyst, which is capturing demand growth from US power generation and data centers. The biggest risk remains regulatory hurdles and potential market shifts toward renewables that could pressure natural gas demand and margins in coming years.

Among recent company updates, EQT’s agreement to supply gas to the Homer City Redevelopment’s 4.4-gigawatt data center campus stands out. This aligns with the core catalyst of growing in-basin gas demand tied to electrification and digital infrastructure, supporting a more stable earnings outlook regardless of new LNG deals or international ventures. However, if decarbonization policies accelerate unexpectedly, revenue streams from even these long-term contracts could face unanticipated challenges.

By contrast, investors should also be aware that expanding LNG exports may still expose EQT to…

Read the full narrative on EQT (it's free!)

EQT's narrative projects $9.8 billion in revenue and $3.8 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 11.3% yearly revenue growth and a $2.7 billion earnings increase from $1.1 billion today.

Uncover how EQT's forecasts yield a $63.28 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five Simply Wall St Community members estimate EQT’s fair value between US$47.87 and US$83.69 per share. While many see upside, the reliance on long-term demand for natural gas is central to the company’s performance and worth comparing with your own outlook.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on EQT - why the stock might be worth as much as 60% more than the current price!

Build Your Own EQT Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your EQT research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free EQT research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate EQT's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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