Should ConocoPhillips’ Raised Output and Lower Costs in Q3 2025 Require Action From COP Investors?

• In its recently reported Q3 2025 results, ConocoPhillips beat analyst expectations, raised full-year production guidance, and lowered operating cost guidance, signaling stronger-than-anticipated operational performance.
• Alongside this, the company stood out in U.S. shale by improving Delaware Basin well productivity in 2025, even as peers generally faced softer results and productivity concerns.
• With ConocoPhillips increasing full-year production guidance despite sector-wide supply risks, we’ll now examine how this shifts the company’s investment narrative.

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ConocoPhillips Investment Narrative Recap

To own ConocoPhillips today, you need to believe that its scale in U.S. shale and growing LNG exposure can offset choppy oil markets and project execution risks. The latest Q3 2025 beat and higher production guidance support that near term, but also sharpen the biggest current risk: sector-wide supply concerns that could pressure prices and test management’s free cash flow ambitions.

The Q3 update, which paired stronger-than-expected production with lower operating cost guidance, is especially relevant here. It suggests ConocoPhillips is squeezing more output from its portfolio just as Wall Street turns cautious on potential oversupply, making the company’s capital-intensive growth projects and shareholder return plans more sensitive to any prolonged weakness in oil and liquids prices.

But investors should also be aware that if oil supply keeps outpacing demand for longer than expected, ConocoPhillips’ ambitious free cash flow targets...

Read the full narrative on ConocoPhillips (it's free!)

ConocoPhillips' narrative projects $57.6 billion revenue and $10.4 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 1.0% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $1.2 billion from $9.2 billion today.

Uncover how ConocoPhillips' forecasts yield a $112.39 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see ConocoPhillips’ fair value between US$110 and about US$223, highlighting how wide opinions can run. Set against that spread, the company’s reliance on large, capital intensive projects reminds you that execution missteps or weaker commodity prices could matter more than any single valuation model suggests, so it is worth weighing several viewpoints before forming a view.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on ConocoPhillips - why the stock might be worth just $110.00!

Build Your Own ConocoPhillips Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your ConocoPhillips research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free ConocoPhillips research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate ConocoPhillips' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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