Does the Recent Qatar LNG Deal Change the Outlook for ConocoPhillips in 2025?

If you are eyeing ConocoPhillips, you are probably wondering if now is the right time to buy, sell, or simply hold tight. The oil and gas giant has had a fascinating run lately, and anyone watching their portfolio will notice the push and pull in the stock's price. Over just the past week, shares have dipped slightly by 0.6%, and losses have stretched to 3.0% for the month. Year-to-date, the decline stands at 7.6%. Still, if you zoom out, the story is much more impressive, with the stock up over 209% in the past five years. These moves tell us the story of a company whose fortunes have shifted alongside global energy trends and whose risk profile is evolving in the eyes of investors.

There is even more to the story. ConocoPhillips now boasts a valuation score of 6 out of 6, signaling that it looks undervalued by all six major measures we track. That kind of clean sweep is rare and often draws in both long-term optimists and bargain hunters alike. So is ConocoPhillips truly a value play right now, or is the current price reflecting future risks? Up next, we are going to break down the valuation checks, and by the end you will have a sharper way to cut through the noise around stock valuation, one that goes beyond the usual numbers.

Why ConocoPhillips is lagging behind its peers

Approach 1: ConocoPhillips Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present day. This approach provides a way to see what a business is truly worth, regardless of current market mood swings.

For ConocoPhillips, the latest reported Free Cash Flow stands at $8.6 Billion. Analysts offer forecasts for the next five years, and beyond that, additional projections are estimated based on historical and sector trends. By 2029, ConocoPhillips' Free Cash Flow is expected to reach roughly $9.9 Billion. The DCF process takes these yearly figures, all in United States dollars, and calculates what they are worth in today’s terms. Simply Wall St uses a "2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity" method, which blends short-term analyst insights with longer-range fair growth assumptions.

The end result is an intrinsic value of $185.42 per share for ConocoPhillips. This stands at a 50.2% discount relative to its current market price, strongly suggesting that the stock is undervalued at today's level.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for ConocoPhillips.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ConocoPhillips is undervalued by 50.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: ConocoPhillips Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is one of the most reliable ways to evaluate a profitable company like ConocoPhillips. It tells us how much investors are paying for each dollar of earned profit, making it especially useful when a company consistently generates positive earnings, as is the case here.

Of course, what counts as a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio depends on expectations for growth and risk. Companies expected to grow faster typically have higher PE ratios, reflecting optimism about future earnings. Businesses facing greater risks or slower growth usually trade at a lower PE.

Currently, ConocoPhillips trades on a PE ratio of 12.6x. This sits just below the Oil and Gas industry average of 12.8x, and also below the average of its selected peers at 13.8x. On the face of it, this suggests the market is valuing ConocoPhillips more cautiously than its competitors.

However, Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” provides an even sharper perspective. This metric calculates the PE you would expect for ConocoPhillips based on essentials like earnings growth, profit margins, industry dynamics, market cap, and risk factors. Because it tailors the multiple to the company’s unique fundamentals, it is often more reliable than comparing simple industry or peer averages.

For ConocoPhillips, the Fair Ratio stands at 17.9x. Since this is notably above the actual PE ratio of 12.6x, it points to undervaluation relative to where the stock could reasonably trade given its prospects and risk profile.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your ConocoPhillips Narrative

Earlier in the article, we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply your personal story about a company, grounded in your assumptions about future revenue, margins, or fair value. It is a bridge between what you believe about ConocoPhillips’ future and what the numbers predict.

Narratives are powerful because they help you connect the dots between a company’s story, a specific financial forecast, and a resultant fair value, making your investment decision both fact-based and personal. On the Simply Wall St platform, Narratives are easy to use and accessible within the Community page, where millions of investors share and refine their perspectives in real time.

By building or following a Narrative, you can quickly spot gaps between your own estimate of Fair Value and the current share price, helping you decide when to buy, sell, or hold. Narratives stay relevant as they update dynamically with new events, such as earnings releases or market news, so your view of the company remains accurate and current.

For example, some investors might see ConocoPhillips as a high-growth leader targeting a fair value of $137.0 due to its global LNG projects and digitalization. Others are more cautious and place fair value closer to $100.0 based on regulatory or execution risks.

Do you think there's more to the story for ConocoPhillips? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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